黑河流域农业节水协调可持续发展研究

构建了黑河流域农业节水协调可持续发展指标体系、协调度和协调发展度模型,采用熵值法确定指标权重,分析了该流域2004—2009年社会经济与农业节水协调可持续发展水平。结果表明:(1)社会经济与农业节水技术水平综合指数呈上升趋势,农业水资源开发利用程度综合指数呈下降趋势;(2)农业节水可持续发展水平呈波动发展趋势,整体发展水平较低,属于传统落后发展阶段,2006年和2009年最高,为0.43,2005年最低,均为0.34;(3)社会经济与农业节水协调发展2004年和2006年不协调,2005年不太协调,2007—2009年达到基本协调,但仍有较大潜力可挖。

Water Saving,Coordinated and Sustainable Development of Agriculture in the Heihe River Basin

This paper builds an indicator system for the coordinated and sustainable development of agricultural water saving in the Heihe River Basin, and a model of coordination degree and coordinated development degree. Using the weight of indicators obtained from entropy method, the paper examines the level of coordinated and sustainable development between social economy and agricultural water saving in this basin. Results show that: (1) the composite index of social economy and agricultural water saving technology was on the rise. The composite index of degree of agricultural water resource development and utilization was on a declining curve; (2) agricultural water saving had a fluctuating level of sustainable development, and its overall development level was lower, indicating a stage of traditional lagging development. The highest level occurred in 2006 and 2009, which was 0.43. And the lowest level occurred in 2005, which was 0.34; (3) as for the coordinated development between social economy and agricultural water saving, it was coordinated in 2004 and 2006, not too coordinated in 2005, and basically coordinated in 2007-2009, with relatively great potential to be tapped.