干旱灾害对农业技术效率的影响

干旱是影响农业生产最主要的自然灾害，探究干旱灾害对农业技术效率的影响机理，明晰灌溉水平与二者之间的逻辑关系，具有重要意义。基于全国27个省份2006—2020年的面板数据，运用随机前沿生产函数（SFA）模型测算农业技术效率，探讨农业技术效率的时空分布特征。在此基础上，采用固定效应和面板门槛回归模型，验证干旱灾害、灌溉水平与农业技术效率三者之间的关系。结果表明：农业技术效率总体呈现上升趋势，年均增长率达到1.09%，技术效率空间分布存在较大差异，西北和华北农业技术效率较低，华东和华中技术效率较高。干旱灾害对农业技术效率有显著负向影响，灌溉水平有利于农业技术效率的提升。当灌溉水平超过38.88%的门槛值时，会缓解干旱灾害对农业技术效率的负向影响。

The impact of drought disaster on agricultural technical efficiency： threshold effect based on irrigation level

Drought is the most important natural disaster affecting agricultural production. It is of great significance to explore the mechanism of drought disaster on agricultural technical efficiency and clarify the role of irrigation conditions. Based on the panel data of 27 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020， SFA model was used in this paper to calculate the agricultural technical efficiency and discuss the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural technical efficiency. On this basis， the panel threshold regression model is adopted to verify the relationship among drought disaster， irrigation level and agricultural technical efficiency. The results showed that： （1）The overall agricultural technical efficiency showed an upward trend with an annual growth rate of 1.09%. There were great differences in the spatial distribution of technical efficiency. The agricultural technical efficiency was lower in Northwest and North China， but higher in East and Central China. （2）Drought disaster had a significant negative impact on agricultural technical efficiency， but the level of irrigation was conducive to the improvement of agricultural technical efficiency. （3）When the irrigation level exceeds the threshold value of 38.88%， it will alleviate the negative impact of drought disaster on agricultural technical efficiency.