祁连山及河西走廊气候变化的时空分布特征

 利用祁连山区及河西走廊20个气象站的气温和降水资料,运用一元回归分析、5 a趋势滑动、Spline插值法,进行气候变化的时空分布特征分析。结果表明：祁连山及河西走廊的气温在20世纪60—80年代偏低,90年代以后偏高;气温的年际变化率为0.0298 ℃·a^-1,并且升温趋势显著;大部分地区的增温幅度在0.02~0.04 ℃·a^-1之间,其中祁连山区的增温幅度大于走廊平原;气温的年际变化幅度在空间上呈现出南北分异,大致以黑河干流为界,中东部地区的增温幅度从南到北呈增大趋势,而中西部地区从南到北呈减小趋势;降水在60年代偏少,其他年代偏多,其中2000年以后明显增多;降水的年际变化率为0.6571 mm·a^-1,不过增加趋势不太明显;大部分地区降水的增加幅度在0~2 mm·a^-1之间,其中祁连山区的增加幅度大于走廊平原;降水的年际变化幅度在空间上呈现出南北分异,其增加幅度从南到北呈减小趋势。

Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor

Based on climatic data of 20 stations in Qilian Mountains and Heixi corridor, methods of regression analysis and moving average were used to study the climatic changing trend of the study area, in addition, the method of Spline interpolation was also employed to research the spatial distribution characteristics of climatic change in study area. It is indicated that temperature is lower during 1960s—1980s and higher after 1990s.Trend of temperature rise is obvious and the inter-annual ratio of temperature is 0.0298 ℃ per year. The temperature rise ratio varies from 0.02 to 0.04 centigrade per year, and temperature rise in Qilian Mountains is more obvious than Hexi corridor. The regional difference in temperature rise is, with the Heihe River as the divided, characterized by the fact that it is increasing in middle-eastern while decreasing in middle-western from south to north in the study area. Precipitation is less in 1960s, whereas it is more in other periods especially after 2000. Trend of precipitation rise is weak and the inter-annual ratio is 0.6571 mm per year. The precipitation rise ratio varies from 0 to 2 mm per year, and precipitation rise in Qilian Mountains is also more obvious than Hexi corridor. Precipitation rise decreased from south to north in study area.