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| 由汶川地震引发对中国地震预报的方法学反思 | |
| 引用本文： | 王铮,宋雅杰,熊文,吴静,俞海宝.由汶川地震引发对中国地震预报的方法学反思[J].山地学报,2009,27(1). |
| 作者姓名： | 王铮 宋雅杰 熊文 吴静 俞海宝 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190 2. 耶鲁大学森林与环境研究学院,美国康涅狄克州纽黑文市,06511;耶鲁大学-南京信息工程大学城市资源与环境创新研究中心,江苏南京,210044 3. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062 4. 耶鲁大学森林与环境研究学院,美国康涅狄克州纽黑文市,06511 5. 耶鲁大学-南京信息工程大学城市资源与环境创新研究中心,江苏南京,210044 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技基础工作专项项目 |
| 摘 要： | 从2008-05-12四川汶川地震出发,对地震预报预防进行深刻的反思科学方法,针对Geller等人1991年在科学杂志(science)提出的地震不可预报等论点,就地震是否可以预报展开了据实的比较性探讨分析;通过跨学科的论证和说理,提出了在中国地震预报继承和创新中,坚持科学发展,"群专结合"的正确方向. |
| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 公众参与 科学方法 整合 |
Thinking China's Earthquake Forecast on Methodology due to "Wenchuan Earthquake" |
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| WANG Zheng,SONG Yajie,XIONG Wen,WU Jing,YU Haibao.Thinking China's Earthquake Forecast on Methodology due to "Wenchuan Earthquake"[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2009,27(1). | |
| Authors: | WANG Zheng SONG Yajie XIONG Wen WU Jing YU Haibao |
| Institution: | 1. East China Normal University;Shanghai;200062;China;2. School of Forestry & Environmental Studies;Yale University;New Haven 06511 Connecticut;USA;3. Institute of Policy & Management;Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100190;4. Yale-NUIST Urban Resources and Environment Initiative;Nanjing 210044;China |
| Abstract: | A brief reflection of the Wenchuan Earthquake in May,2008 and reasoning on the predictability of earthquakes are conducted in this paper. An objective and comparative discussion and analysis is brought forward based on the argument that "earthquakes cannot be predicted" ,presented in Science by Geller etc. in 1997. Through an interdisciplinary reasoning and discussion,the authors of this paper believe that the scientific development direction as well as "working combined experts with public participation" p... |
| Keywords: | earthquake prediction public participation Methodology integration |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |