我国西南地区与东南亚地缘经济关系的外贸效应

为分析“一带一路”倡议影响下我国西南地区与东南亚国家地缘经济关系的时空演化特征及其对双边贸易的影响机理,基于欧氏距离法对地缘经济关系进行测算,并通过扩展引力模型分析地缘经济关系和物流绩效的对外贸易效应。结果表明:西南四省份对东南亚国家的经济依赖程度较高,但地缘经济关系以竞争型为主,且竞争性随时间演化整体上呈逐年减弱的趋势;地缘经济关系对双边贸易具有抑制作用,其阻碍系数在“一带一路”倡议实施后呈下降的趋势;国际物流绩效因子对双边贸易的影响呈现明显的阶段性特征,“一带一路”倡议实施前其影响强度较小且不显著,而实施后表现为显著为正。

Geo-economic Relations and Foreign Trade Effects between Southwest China and Southeast Asian Countries

In order to obtain impact mechanism of geo-economic relationship on bilateral trade,the Euclidean distance model is constructed to measure the geo-economic relations between southwest China and Southeast Asian Countries.Then the extended gravitational model is established to analyze the foreign trade effect of geo-economic relation and logistics performance.The results show that:The economics of southwest China depend heavily on Southeast Asian countries,but their geo-economic relations are mainly competitive,and their competitiveness tends to weaken year by year.The geo-economic relationship has a negative impact on bilateral trade,and its hindrance coefficient has a downward trend after“The Belt and Road Initiative”.The influence coefficient of logistics performance on bilateral trade changes from insignificant to significant positive.It has effectively verified that the implementation of policy such as logistics infrastructure construction,customs clearance and trade facilitation for countries along the belt and road has played a positive role in promoting the development of bilateral trade.