中国地市尺度工业污染的集聚特征与影响因素

随着工业化的快速发展,中国工业污染形势极为严峻,而且不同工业污染物的分布有着明显的空间差异性。根据2013年中国286个地市工业废水、工业SO₂和工业烟（粉）尘等工业污染数据,以污染总量和污染强度为测度指标,采用探索性空间数据方法,引入空间计量经济模型,对全国工业污染的地理集聚特征及影响因素进行计量分析。结果显示：① 工业污染空间集聚显著,空间分布差异大。工业废水、工业SO₂、工业烟（粉）尘总量和强度存在显著的空间相关性和空间集聚性;废水总量东高西低,强度西高东低;SO₂总量北高南低且高污染区域较多,强度西高东低;烟（粉）尘总量与强度空间格局相似,集中于晋陕甘一带。② 工业污染空间溢出效应显著。三大污染物总量和强度均表现出显著的空间滞后和空间误差溢出效应,区域污染物排放会受到周边地区污染物排放的显著影响。③ 三类污染物由于不同的特性、空间格局和产业指向性,使得影响空间分布的关键因素存在有显著差异。经济发展水平、人口密度、第三产业比重、利用外资规模、能源强度的提升,会增加污染物总量,但经济发展水平、人口密度、科技支出水平的提升,则有利于降低污染强度。④ 要进一步降低工业污染,提高环境质量,既要充分重视工业污染的空间交互作用,加强地区间联防联控,同时也要提高区域经济发展水平,促进产业结构升级和生产工艺高级化,加大科技投入,控制能源强度,因地制宜、因势利导的制定差异化工业污染防治措施。

Agglomeration characteristics of industrial pollution and their influencing factors on the scale of cities in China

Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development is accompanied by serious environmental pollution. In China, industrial pollution is very prominent. In 2014, China's industrial SO₂ and industrial smoke dust accounted for more than 80% of the total SO₂ and smoke dust emissions. In order to develop scientific and reasonable pollution control policy, we must make clear the present situation and causes of China's industrial pollution. Based on the industrial pollution (waste water, SO₂, smoke dust) data of 286 cities in 2013, and using the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model, this paper investigates the geographical concentration and influencing factors of the total amount and intensity of industrial pollution. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The industrial pollution (waste water, SO₂, smoke dust) demonstrated significant geographical concentration and spatial autocorrelation and different patterns of spatial distribution. The total amount of waste water in the east region is larger than that in the west whereas the intensity of waste water in the east is lower than that in the west. The total amount of SO₂ is higher in the north compared to that in the south and more areas are highly polluted. The intensity of SO₂ in the west is higher than that in the east. The spatial pattern of total amount of smoke dust, which is similar to that of its intensity, is concentrated in the Shaanxi and Gansu provinces. (2) The total amount and intensity of the three pollutants showed significant spatial lag and spatial error spillover effect, which means the pollutant discharge in the region will be affected by the emissions of pollutants in the surrounding area. (3) Due to different characteristics, spatial pattern and industry orientation, the three kinds of pollutants have shown significant differences in the key factors of spatial distribution. Factors such as level of economic development, population density, the proportion of the tertiary industry, the scale of foreign capital investment, and the efficiency of energy consumption will increase the total amount of pollutants. However, the level of economic development, population density, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the rising expenses in science and technology can reduce the intensity of pollution. (4) To reduce the industrial pollution, we should not only pay attention to the spatial interaction of industrial pollution, strengthen joint prevention and control among regions, but also raise the level of regional economic development, promote the upgrade of the industrial structure, increase investment in science and technology, and take related countermeasures suited to local conditions.