跨海通道空间效益模型——以珠江口跨海通道为例

跨海通道建设可缩短海湾两岸城市间交通时间,提升城市间经济联系。提出跨海通道空间效益理论模型,并采用城市相互作用强度引力模型,基于GIS计算珠江口港珠澳大桥和深中通道开通前后两岸城市最短时间矩阵,定量分析两岸城市可达性、经济联系强度和空间格局,验证理论模型的科学性。基本验证了跨海通道效益理论模型,结果表明：① 珠三角加权可达性水平较高地区主要集中在核心地区,跨海通道对可达性影响较大地区主要分布在南部,从南向北逐渐减小。② 跨海通道显著提升区域经济联系总量,深圳与香港、中山与澳门分别成为珠江口两岸提升最高的城市。跨海通道改变城市经济联系空间格局,促进区域经济联系分布更加均衡。③ 大陆与港澳间的通关时间是区域城市经济联系的重要影响因素,通关时间对区域经济联系总量的影响约占四分之一,未来需建立更加便捷的通关程序。

Spatial effects of different fixed links on accessibility and regional economic linkage in Pearl River Delta

The construction of trans-strait bridge or fixed link can greatly stimulate the transport and economic connection of the urban agglomerations separated by the strait, and exert a potential influence on population mobility, land use, industry transformation and upgrading, regional structure and so on. This research aims to modify the theatrical model studied by Matthiessen and set up the spatial impacts model for trans-strait fixed links in the Pearl River Delta, and assess the comprehensive impacts of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) and Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge (SZB) on the accessibility and regional economic linkages. With the help of GIS analysis tools, we first calculate weighted average time of the Pearl River Delta and obtain the time cost matrix of 8 cities on the east and west sides of the Pearl River estuary. Then we use the gravity model to calculate the interurban economic linkages, and analyze the distribution of the total economic linkage. The results indicate that: (1) The analysis results confirm the modified spatial impacts model, which is more suitable for the circumstance in the Pearl River Delta. (2) The fixed links improve the regional weighted average time from 1.710 h to 1.654 h, and the core region (including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Donguan and Zhongshan) realizes significantly high weighted average time compared with the peripheral area (including Huizhou and Jiangmen). The spatial change of weighted average time by different fixed links differs in the region, the south part of the region (including Macao, Zhuhai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and south of Huizhou) has the biggest improvement, while the north part (including Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan) experiences a much lower accessibility variability. (3) The east side occupies 3/4 of the regional economic linkages under different scenarios. Shenzhen and Hong Kong are the main directions of the regional economic linkage. The fixed links in the Pearl River Delta greatly improve the regional economic linkages. The east side of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and the west side of Zhongshan and Macao have become the biggest beneficiaries. The fixed links also accelerate regional restructuring and lead to a more integrated and complex economic linkage network, which has a positive influence on regional development. (4) The clearance time exerts a negative impact on regional economic linkage, which accounts for about 1/4 of regional economic linkage. In particular, Hong Kong, Macao and Zhuhai are affected by the clearance to 40% of the economic linkage. So it is necessary to establish a more convenient customs clearance procedures in the future.