CGE模型在地理学综合研究中的应用

地理学研究以综合性和区域性为特色。提高地表过程研究中人文与自然要素综合分析的深度与广度,寻找学科交叉的综合途径是地理学中具有挑战性的课题。可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE) 是环境与经济系统之间互动影响关系模拟的有力工具,在地理学综合研究中得到广泛应用。本文概括了CGE模型在资源环境的可持续性、气候变化与资源税、灾害与综合风险管理、污染物的区域环境过程等多个方面的应用,从模拟主体、模型约束、模拟方法以及过程与结果表达4 个角度,总结了CGE模型与地理学综合研究之间的契合点,并指出与地理学其他模型的耦合以及情景模拟的地理学依据是CGE模型下一步的发展方向。

Application of CGE model in comprehensive research in geography

Geography is a discipline with its notable characteristics of integration. In other words, integration and regionalism are the basic characteristics of geography. CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is a multisectoral, economy-wide nonlinear equilibrium model that are closely related to the Walrasian model of a competitive economy. General equilibrium and autonomous decision making are two concepts central to the CGE modeling framework. It is effective to simulate and evaluate the interaction between the environment and society, and has been widely used in integrated study of geography. This paper introduces the CGE model application in the fields of the sustainability of resources and ecology, global change and resource taxes formation mechanism and the comprehensive risk management of disasters, and regional environmental process and control of pollutants. The model agents, model constraints, simulation methods, processes and results are the main integration point between the CGE model and geographical research. Based on current researches of resources and environment accounting, there are three main methods to combine environment and society together in CGE: extending traditional SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) to ESAM (Environmental Social Accounting Matrix), subdividing environmental sectors, and adding environmental functions in the model constraints. We can draw three conclusions. First, CGE is a mature integrated model for the simulation of an eco-economic system. Using the CGE analysis, this model has been well developed and widely used in some areas in different geographical integrated fields all over the world. Second, CGE model has significant advantages in evaluating the system change effects. Third, in the future, expansion of model application, coupled with other geographical models and set rational scenarios will probably better serve the development of the CGE model.