中国高技能劳动力与一般劳动力的空间分布格局及其影响因素

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据和地级行政单元数据,采用不均衡指数和空间自相关分析等方法,刻画中国高技能劳动力和一般劳动力的空间分布格局及其变化,并采用空间滞后模型,识别高技能劳动力与一般劳动力空间分布的决定因素及其变化。结果表明：① 两类劳动力总体的空间特征均为东南密集,西北稀疏;② 2000—2010年,高技能劳动力在空间分布上呈集中化的趋势,而一般劳动力呈分散化的趋势;③ 十年间高技能劳动力集聚区虹吸作用加强,其分布越发集中于沿海特大城市群,而一般劳动力集聚区回波作用加强,其分布越发均衡;④ 空间回归分析结果表明,职工平均工资、是否直辖市或省会、每万人在校高校学生、是否沿海城市、常住人口数和空间溢出效应在十年中一直都是决定高技能劳动力和一般劳动力空间分布的主要因素,而失业率、中学生师比、二氧化硫排放量和绿地率在2010年也成为影响两类劳动力空间分布的主要因素。对比两类劳动力的模型结果可得,高技能劳动力的空间分布受行政因素、高校因素和地区生活舒适度的影响更大,而一般劳动力的空间分布受劳动力市场因素的影响更大。

The spatial pattern and determinants of skilled laborers and less-skilled laborers in China: Evidence from 2000 and 2010 censuses

Based on 2000 and 2010 county-level and city-level National Demographic Census data, we applied inequality index and spatial auto-correlation analysis to specify the spatial patterns of China's high-skilled and general labor force and its variation during the decade. We also use the SLM model to further analyze the main factors that contribute to the spatial patterns and the changes of them. The results are as follows: (1) The density of high-skilled labors and general laborers was high in southeastern China and low in northwestern regions. (2) From 2000 to 2010, the high-skilled labors had been accumulating spatially while the normal labors had been dispersing. (3) The siphon effects of the high-skilled-labor clusters, which were more inclined to accumulate in coastal metropolitan area compared with 10 years ago, also enhanced during the decade. On the contrary, the echo effect of general labor clusters strengthened and attained the uniform distribution. (4) Results of spatial regression analysis showed that the level of wages, urban administrative level, the number of ten thousand college students, the coastal cities, population and spatial spillover effects in the ten years were the main factors determining the spatial distribution of high-skilled and general labor force, while the unemployment rate, high school teacher ratio, concentration of sulfur dioxide and afforestation in 2010 became the main factors influencing the two types of labor distribution. Comparing the two types of labor model, we found that the spatial distribution of the high-skilled labors was more influenced by government forces, while the spatial distribution of general laborers was influenced by market forces.