广东省外商直接投资业绩与潜力的时空差异

回顾广东省外商直接投资历史,选取10项影响其直接投资潜力的要素指标,构建业绩指数和潜力指数进行定量分析认为:(1)广东省已经取得了很高的外商直接投资业绩,但是外商直接投资业绩指数总体上呈稳定而缓慢的下降趋势。(2)无论是潜力还是业绩,珠江三角洲的核心区域一直是广东省外商直接投资高水平区域,珠江三角洲外商直接投资分散化空间分布趋势主导了全省外商直接投资的分散化趋势。(3)广东省大部分地市外商直接投资业绩水平的增长快于潜力水平的提高,但广州、深圳和佛山等中心城市外商直接投资业绩都不同程度地滞后于潜力。

Temporal and spatial disparities of performance and potential of foreign direct investment in Guangdong

The main purpose of this paper is to reveal the temporal and spatial disparities of the performance and potential of FDI within Guangdong province by constructing indices of performance and potential of FDI. Ten potential indicators have been employed and the Pearson coefficients between them and FDI were obtained through correlative analysis. Furthermore, the coupling mechanism between performance and potential of FDI was established to distinguish the coupling types of regional performance and potential of FDI and their transformation through time in Guangdong. Strong evidence from this study shows that just reversing to the trend of the amount of actually utilized foreign capitals, the performance index-scores of FDI in Guangdong are diminishing slowly. The Pearl River Delta Economic Zone (PRDEZ) has always been the most important area of Guangdong province concerning FDI, in spite of the shrinkage of quotient occupied by it. The decentralizing trend of spatial distribution of FDI in PRDEZ has dominated the decentralizing trend throughout the province, as the values of HI show. Results show that 52% of all the 21 prefectures belong to the region-types of potential lagging behind performance, and 38% belong to the types of performance lagging behind potential, only 10% belong to the type of harmony during 1995-1996. Comparing with the circs of the period 1995-1996, 100% prefectures of PRDEZ and 58% prefectures of the other area beyond PRDEZ had increased their potential level, 67% prefectures of PRDEZ and 42% prefectures of the other area beyond PRDEZ had increased their performance level during 2000-2001. The empirical results have important policy implications for foreign-capital economic development of Guangdong province. For the main central cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan have been found to belong to the performance lagging behind potential region-type through quantitative analysis, the concept that all these cities are all saturated with foreign capitals should be renewed.