基于FAO-GAEZ模型的中国马铃薯县域种植空间布局优化

马铃薯“主粮化”战略要求在不挤占三大主粮的前提下提升国家马铃薯种植面积和产量。已有关于马铃薯种植空间布局的研究缺少定量支撑的相关优化证据。本文结合统计数据分析中国马铃薯的消费结构及其消费量的变化趋势，应用ARMA模型预测中国2022—2040年马铃薯年均需求量。结合耕地空间分布数据和马铃薯县域种植面积数据，应用GAEZ模型以适宜性等级作为优先级对未来中国马铃薯种植布局进行县域尺度空间推演，提出未来中国马铃薯县域尺度的种植空间布局优化方案。结果表明：① 1961—2019年，中国马铃薯的总消费量由1290万t增加到了9152.5万t，其中食用消费结构变化最为显著。② 2022—2040年，中国马铃薯年均需求量为1.10亿t，基本适宜及以上程度马铃薯种植区域共计5423万hm²，种植其中532万hm²可满足相应消费需求。③ 基于适宜度指数的未来中国马铃薯最优生产布局为东北一季作区、华北一季作区、西北一季作区和西南一二季混作区（包含55个县级区域）。建议坚持整体推进与重点突破相统一的原则，推动马铃薯种植布局优化升级。研究结果能够为中国粮食安全政策制定和马铃薯种植空间布局提供理论参考。

Optimization analysis of China's potato spatial layout at county level based on FAO-GAEZ model

The strategy of potato as staple food requires that the national potato planting area and yield should be improved without occupying the space of the three staple grains. Existing studies on potato planting spatial layout lack quantitative support for relevant optimization evidence. Based on statistical data, this paper analyzed China's potato consumption structure and its consumption trend, and applied ARMA model to predict China's average annual potato demand from 2022 to 2040. Combined with the data of cultivated land distribution and potato planting status, the GAEZ model was used to carry out the county-scale spatial deducing of future potato planting layout in China with the priority of suitability level, and the future county-scale spatial layout optimization scheme of potato planting in China was proposed. The result showed that: (1) From 1961 to 2019, the total potato consumption in China increased from 12.90 million tons to 91.53 million tons, among which the change of consumption structure was the most significant. (2) From 2022 to 2040, the average total demand of potato in China is 110 million tons. A total of 54.23 million hm² of potato planting area with basic suitability or above level can be planted, of which 5.32 million hm² can meet corresponding consumption demand. (3) In the future, the optimal potato production distribution based on the suitability index in China will be single cropping area in northeast China, single cropping area in North China, single cropping area in northwest China, and mixed area of single and double cropping in southwest China (including 55 county-level regions). We suggested adhering to the principle of unity of overall progress and key breakthroughs. On the premise of not competing for water and land with wheat, rice and maize, it is necessary to give full play to the production advantages of the dominant potato crop areas, relieve the ecological pressure of the non-dominant potato crop areas, promote the regional potato industry upgrading, and form a “region-city-county” potato planting spatial layout and optimization policy system. The results can provide theoretical reference for food security policy making and potato planting spatial layout in China.