北京市住房价格和租金的空间分异与相互关系

当前中国住房销售市场、住房租赁市场发展不平衡,研究住房价格、租金的空间分异与相互关系,对建立“租售并举”的住房制度具有重要参考价值。利用2016年北京市各住宅小区的住房价格、租金数据,及2006—2016年北京市逐月住房销售价格指数、住房租赁价格指数,从时空尺度剖析了住房价格、租金的空间分异与相互关系,并剖析了背后的差异机制。结果表明：① 北京市住房价格和租金的空间格局均呈多中心圈层递减结构,且南北差异明显,但租金的空间分异程度弱于住房价格。② 住房价格具有中等程度的空间相关性,受政策等随机性因素影响相对较大,而租金具有强烈的空间相关性,受区位交通等确定性因素影响相对较大。③ 住房价格和租金的价格剖面线并不相同,住房价格易受学区、大型公园等的影响,而租金更易受就业所在地、建筑年龄等的影响。售租比呈混乱斑驳、相对均质的扁平化分布特征,且小区越高档,售租比越高。④ 北京市住房销售市场和住房租赁市场基本相对独立发展,更符合双重市场的特征。产生上述差异的主要原因在于住房销售市场和住房租赁市场的市场特征、服务人群以及市场发育程度不同。

The spatial differentiation and relationship between housing prices and rents: Evidence from Beijing in China

At present, the development of China's housing sales market and housing rental market are unbalanced. The study on the spatial differentiation and relationship between housing prices and housing rents is of important reference value for the establishment of the "renting and purchasing" housing system. Using the data of housing prices and rental prices of residential units in 2016, and the 2006-2016 monthly housing sales price index and rental price index in Beijing, the paper explores the spatial differentiation and relationship between housing prices and rents from space-time scales, as well as the difference mechanism. The results show that: (1) The housing prices and rents both diminish from the multi-center to the outside. There are great differences in the distribution of housing prices and rents between the northern and southern parts of Beijing. Compared with the housing prices, rents show weaker spatial differentiation. (2) Housing prices have a moderate spatial correlation, which is mainly caused by uncertain factors (such as policy factors, and human factors), while rents have a strong spatial correlation, which is mainly caused by certain factors (such as location, and public facilities). (3) The profiles of housing prices and rents are different, since housing prices are sensitive to the school districts and urban large parks, but rents are more sensitive to the employment center and building age. The price-to-rent ratio is relatively homogeneous across the region, and the higher the housing price, the higher the price-to-rent ratio. (4) Beijing's housing sales market and housing rental market is in mutually independent development, in line with the characteristics of the dual market theory. The main reason for the above differences is that the market characteristics, the oriented population as well as the market development of the housing sales market and housing rental market are different.