限制开发区政策调整对农民增产增收的影响研究

乡村振兴依托于特定的发展环境,政策调整是影响乡村发展的重要外部冲击。经国务院批准,洞庭湖生态经济区规划于2014年正式实施,旨在实现保障长江流域水安全和生态安全、巩固提升湖区粮食主产区地位等目标。本文将其视作准自然实验,运用2007—2017年湖南省县域面板数据,利用双重差分法从农民增收和粮食增产的视角研究规划实施的影响效应。结果表明：① 规划实施通过产生结构效应、配置效应与技术效应,从而达到增收增产效果,洞庭湖生态经济区规划实施后的粮食产量比实施前提高了3.82%,农民收入增加了10.2%,规划实施的效果不存在时滞效应,将有利于乡村振兴战略中产业兴旺、生活富裕等目标的实现。② 县的农民增产增收效果显著,但县级市的效果欠佳。③ 比较其他粮食作物,水稻增产效果较为明显。④ 下一步应在建设高标准基本农田、加大农业补贴和生态补偿、培育乡村特色产业等方面进一步优化和完善相关政策,以促进限制开发区乡村振兴目标的实现。

The influence of the policy adjustment on the increase of grain production and farmers' income in restricted development zones

Rural revitalization depends on a specific development environment, and policy adjustment has an important external impact on the development of rural areas. With the approval of the State Council, Hunan province has formally implemented the Planning of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone since the year of 2014, in order to achieve such objectives as ensuring water and ecological security in the Yangtze River Basin, consolidating and enhancing the status of the Dongting Lake as one of the main grain producing areas in China. Making an evaluation on the impact effect of the Planning of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone has great reference value for balancing rural revitalization and the construction of ecological civilization in restricted development zones.In this paper, the approval and implementation of the Planning of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone in 2014 is taken as a quasi-natural experiment, while the panel data of 87 counties of Hunan province from 2007 to 2017 and difference-in-differences model are used to test the effect of the Rural Revitalization from two perspectives of the income increase of farmers and grain yield increase. The results show that: (1) the implementation of the Planning of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone can increase both yield and income through generating the structural effect, allocation effect and technical effect. The grain output has increased by 3.82% and the income of farmers has increased by 10.2% after the implementation of the Planning. Moreover, the implementation of the Planning does not have a time-delay effect, which will actually be beneficial to such goals in rural revitalization as industrial prosperity and a better-off life. (2) There is an remarkable increase in production and income of county farmers;nevertheless, as a matter of fact, the effect in county-level cities is not good enough. (3) In comparison with other types of grain crops, the yield of rice has an even more marked increase. (4) The next step is to further optimize and improve the relevant policies on the construction of high standard basic farmland, the increase of agricultural subsidies and ecological compensation, and the cultivation of rural characteristic industries, so as to promote the realization of rural revitalization in restricted development zones.