汾河流域县域经济差异的时空格局演变及驱动因素

探索流域经济差异的时空演化及其规律,可以为推进流域经济空间结构调整和优化、制定区域协调发展政策、促进流域经济持续稳定和高质量发展提供科学参考和依据。利用数理统计分析与探索性空间数据分析方法（ESDA）相结合,以县域为研究的基本单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,对1995—2016年汾河流域县域经济差异的时空格局演变及其驱动因素进行研究分析,主要结论如下：① 1995年以来,汾河流域县域经济的绝对差异呈现先快速上升后逐步下降的趋势,而相对差异则表现为波动上升后波动回落的特征;② 县域经济空间分异特征明显,且存在明显的时空演变,形成了以太原市区、孝义市为中心的流域经济发展的核心区,和包括宁武、静乐、娄烦、岚县、汾西、万荣等县组成的经济发展边缘区,经济空间结构的“核心-边缘”特征显著;③ 汾河流域县域经济存在较为明显的空间正相关性,但空间相关性随时间呈现波动变化。流域县域经济的热点和次热点区主要集中在以太原市区、孝义市为中心的流域中游地区,而流域的上游以及下游的南部则成为冷点和次冷点区。流域经济空间重心沿主轴方向向西南移动趋势较为明显,并在沿主轴和辅轴方向均存在一定程度的扩张趋势;④ 自然条件和地理区位、区域资源禀赋和产业结构、人口和城镇化水平以及国家政策和市场环境等是影响汾河流域县域经济空间格局演变的重要因素。

The spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of economic difference at county level in Fenhe River Basin

Exploring spatio-temporal evolution and the laws of economic differences of river basin can provide a scientific basis for promoting the adjustment and optimization of the spatial structure of river basin economy, making regional coordinated development policies, and promoting the sustainable stability and high-quality development of river basin economy. Based on the combination of mathematical statistics analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), this paper takes county as the basic unit and GDP per capita as the measurement index to study spatial pattern evolution and the influencing factors of county economic differences in the Fenhe River Basin from 1995 to 2016. The results show that the absolute difference of county economy in the basin has shown a trend of rapid rise and then gradual decline, while the relative difference is characterized by the decline of fluctuation after the rise of fluctuation since 1995. The spatial differentiation characteristics of county economy is obvious, and there are distinct spatial and temporal evolutions, which forms the core area of basin economy centered on cities of Taiyuan and Xiaoyi, and the economic edge area is composed of Ningwu, Jingle, Loufan, Lanxian, Fenxi, Wanrong, etc. The "Core-Edge" characteristics of economic spatial structure is significant, and the difference of the economic development level between the core area and the edge area is obvious. From the perspective of spatial correlation, the county economy in the study area has obvious spatial positive correlation, which fluctuates with time. The hot and sub-hot areas of the county economy are mainly concentrated in the middle reaches of the river basin with Taiyuan and Xiaoyi as the center, while the upstream of the basin and the southern part of the downstream become cold and sub-cold areas. The center of gravity of the basin's economic space moves toward the southwest in the direction of the main axis, which is more obvious, and there is a certain degree of expansion in both the main axis and the auxiliary axis. But the expansion process is not the same, which is consistent with the strategy of actively promoting the urban spatial planning system of "One Core, One Circle and Three Groups" in Shanxi Province. Natural conditions and geographical location, regional resource endowment and industrial structure, population and urbanization level, as well as national policies and market environment are important factors that affect the evolution of county economic spatial pattern in the study basin. Among them, the agglomeration of population, the development of urbanization, the improvement of industrialization level and the expansion of market scale play a significant role in promoting the development of county economy, while limitation of terrain and the lack of regional market vitality will restrict and hinder the development of county economy in this region. The analysis results of multiple linear regression model show that the imbalance of population agglomeration and industrial development level are the main factors leading to the expansion of economic differences of county in the Fenhe River Basin.