“一带一路”生产网络演化及中国经济贡献分析

在全球生产网络时代背景下,“一带一路”沿线国家间生产网络的形成和发展对于“一带一路”倡议的进一步推进有着重要意义。“一带一路”倡议提出以来,国内外对其有着诸多误解以及曲解,建立有利于“一带一路”实施的话语体系同样至关重要。本文运用投入产出、增加值分解以及网络分析等方法,对“一带一路”生产网络演化过程以及中国通过生产网络对“一带一路”沿线国家的经济带动作用开展定量研究,结果表明：① 1995—2015年,“一带一路”沿线国家生产网络联系不断加强。② 生产网络结构发生重大变化,重心转移和一体化趋势并存。③ 中国通过生产网络合作对“一带一路”沿线国家经济贡献不断加大,有效地带动了区域经济的发展。④ 中国对“一带一路”沿线国家经济贡献量分布呈现出南北高,中间低的地理格局。“一带一路”沿线国家加强生产网络合作是激活后发优势,凸显比较优势以及共同应对外部经济风险的有效方法,同时“一带一路”学术话语体系的建设仍然任重道远,需要多学科的共同努力。

Evolution of the Belt and Road production networks and China's economic contribution

The global production networks have become one of the most important organization platform for coordinating and organizing global production activities, and the development of production networks in the Belt and Road area has a great significance for further promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, there has been an endless stream of misunderstandings and even negative remarks. So it is also crucial to establish a discourse system conducive to the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper uses the methods of input and output analysis, value-added decomposition and network analysis to carry out quantitative research on the evolution process of production networks in the Belt and Road region and China's economic drive to this region through production networks. The results show that: (1) From 1995 to 2015, the inter-regional production network links in the Belt and Road region were constantly strengthened. (2) The regional production network structure underwent great changes, and the focus shift and integration trend coexisted. (3) China's contribution to the economic development of the Belt and Road region through production network cooperation continuously increased and effectively promoted the development of the regional economy. (4) China's economic contribution to the Belt and Road region presents a geographical pattern of high in the northern and southern regions and low in the central region. This paper proposes that strengthening the production network cooperation in the Belt and Road region is an effective way to activate late-comer advantages, highlight comparative advantages and jointly respond to external economic risks. At the same time, establishing the academic discourse system of the Belt and Road still requires joint multi-disciplinary efforts.