农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述

随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。

Review on the resilience of farmers' livelihoods to climate change

With the awareness of climate change and its possible consequences to natural environment and human society, livelihood resilience has gradually become a new and key concept in our efforts to cope with the risks induced by climate change. On the basis of combing the concept of resilience in different fields, the scientific connotation and research framework of farmers' livelihood resilience to climate change are presented to improve the resilience of farmers' livelihood to climate change which mainly reflects assets, government apparatus, self-organization capacity and learning capacity. Finally, the measurement methods of livelihood resilience are summarized from aspects of qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Qualitative evaluation methods mainly include field questionnaire survey, key informants interview, key group discussion, livelihood trajectory method and case analysis. Quantitative evaluation methods mainly contain indicator substitution method, structural dynamics analysis, Bayesian network model and baseline comparison method. Future research needs to improve the evaluation method, strengthen the dynamic study and carry out regional comparative studies on the resilience of farmers' livelihood to climate change.