市场潜力、空间溢出与制造业集聚

为深入分析国内外市场潜力对于中国制造业集聚发展的重要影响,首先引入一个新经济地理学模型,从理论上分析国内外市场潜力对于制造业区位选择的影响,进而结合跨省面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型对中国省域国内外市场潜力对制造业集聚的影响效应进行经验论证。参数估计结果很好地证实了省域内的国内外市场潜力对制造业集聚的显著的直接促进作用以及省域间的国内市场潜力和国外市场潜力对制造业集聚的空间溢出效应。此外,实证结果也证实了交通基础设施和市场化程度对制造业集聚的直接促进作用,劳动生产率对制造业集聚的直接促进作用和正向溢出效应,实际工资水平对制造业集聚的直接和间接阻滞（负溢出）作用。基于地理距离空间权重矩阵和0-1邻接空间权重矩阵的估计结果具有一致性。文章最后指明了上述结论的政策含义。

Market potential,spatial spillover and manufacturing industry agglomeration

In order to have an in-depth analysis of the important role of the domestic and foreign markets potential that plays in promoting the agglomeration of manufacturing industry in China, this paper firstly introduces a new economic geography model to analyze the impact of domestic and international market potential (DIMP) on the manufacturing agglomeration, and then uses spatial Durbin methods to examine DIMP's impact on China's manufacturing industry agglomeration based on the cross-provincial panel data. The result of parameter estimation well confirms the significant direct effect of the DIMP within provinces on manufacturing agglomeration and the spatial spillover effect of the DIMP between provinces on manufacturing agglomeration. The empirical results also illustrate the direct role of transport infrastructures and marketilization in promoting manufacturing agglomeration, the direct promotion of labor productivity to manufacturing agglomeration and the positive spillover effect, and the direct and indirect blocking effects (negative spillover) of actual wage levels on manufacturing agglomeration. What's more, the estimation results based on different spatial weight matrixes are consistency. Finally, the policy implications for the above conclusion are proposed. The characteristics of this study are as follows: (1) The market potential is subdivided into two parts, namely domestic and foreign market potentials, which characterize the intrinsic relationship between the two types of market potentials and manufacturing agglomeration under the framework of the new economic geography; (2) Integrating supply and demand factors into a unified analytical framework and taking into account the characteristics of spatial dependency among regions, and using the spatial Durbin model to focus on the complicated impact of the potential of domestic and foreign markets on manufacturing agglomeration, this model suggests that the market potential not only has a direct impact on manufacturing agglomeration but also takes note of the spillover effect of market potential on manufacturing agglomeration; (3) We introduce the interactive items of DIMP into the model to further verify the existence of the "alternative" relationship in domestic and foreign markets in the formation of manufacturing agglomeration; (4) The conclusions drawn from the spatial weights of geographic distance and 0-1 space adjacency spatial weight matrix are consistent, which illustrates the empirical conclusion of the stability.