中日韩在东盟制造业价值链的参与特征及耦合关系——基于TiVA数据库的实证

从增加值创造与流转角度考察制造业区域网络及价值链,是当前国际贸易与产业专业化分工研究的新领域。各国在制造业区域价值链参与中的效应问题,尤其是价值链参与对各经济体及其生产要素的优化配置形成何种规制,更是一个需要探究的“黑箱问题”。基于OECD和WTO联合发布的TiVA数据库最新统计数据,借鉴、构造了区域价值链参与度指数、产业演进系数、产业竞争力指数、区域价值链参与度位序等量化指标,构建起区域价值链“参与度-适应性-竞争力”分析框架,对中日韩在东盟制造业价值链的参与特征及耦合关系,开展时序统计测度与横向比较。研究表明：① 中日韩对东盟制造业价值链的贡献份额提高到47%,是区域价值链的主要参与者与实际主导者。其中,中国历经1995—2001年、2002—2007年、2008—2015年三个发展期,超越韩日成为首位参与国;② 三国参与区域价值链的产业结构同期发生调整。中国符合产业演进梯度上升的一般规律,解构了所谓的东亚“雁行模式”,但在结构合理性上尚需提高。日韩则向中低技术产业逆向演进,契合市场需求;③ 三国的产业竞争力及其空间格局随之出现阶段性演替。当前,中日韩分别在高技术产业、中高技术产业、中低技术产业形成竞争优势,并在东盟区域演绎出了空间交叉、部分重叠、独据等三种产业互动类型。这与各国自身制造业产能及其发展阶段紧密相关,更受到区域价值链成长需求与参与国之间竞争关系的影响。

The participation characteristics and coupling relationship of China,Japan and South Korea in the ASEAN manufacturing value chain: Empirical research based on TiVA database

It is a new field of international trade and industrial specialization research with the perspective of value added creation and flow, to observe manufacturing regional network and value chain. The effect of each country in the manufacturing regional value chain participation is a black box that needs to be explored, especially the regulation of the value chain participation on the optimal allocation of various economies and their production factors. The paper constructs quantitative indicators such as regional value chain participation index, industrial evolution index, industrial competitiveness index, and regional value chain participation degree order. Based on the latest statistical data of TiVA database jointly released by OECD and WTO, the paper analyzes the participation characteristics and coupling relationship of China, Japan and South Korea in the ASEAN manufacturing value chain, using an analysis framework of participation-adaptation-competitiveness, with the method of time series statistics and horizontal comparison. The research shows that: (1)The contribution of China, Japan and South Korea to the ASEAN manufacturing value chain has increased to 47%, which is the main player and actual leader of the regional value chain. Among them, China experienced three development periods of 1995-2001, 2002-2007, and 2008-2015, and has surpassed South Korea and Japan to become the first participating countries. (2) The industrial structure of the three countries participating in the regional value chain has been adjusted during the same period. China conforms to the general law of the gradient of industrial evolution and deconstructs the so-called East Asian “goose line model”, but it still needs to be optimized in terms of structural rationality. Japan and South Korea have reversed the trend toward medium-low-tech industries, which is more in line with market demand. (3) The industrial competitiveness of the three countries and their spatial pattern have resulted in a phased succession. At present, China, Japan and South Korea each have advantages in high-tech industries, medium-high-tech industries and medium-low-tech industries, and have developed three types of industrial interaction, such as spatial intersection, partial overlap and monopoly in the ASEAN region. This is closely related to the manufacturing capacity of each country and its development stage, and is also affected by the growth of regional value chain demand and participating countries’ competitive relationship.