山东半岛城市群旅游竞争力动态仿真与评价

从城市群整体及其内部城市单体两个角度出发,通过系统分析旅游业发展动力、旅游业发展水平、旅游影响、旅游经济联系以及不同城市对城市群旅游业发展的贡献等因素,构建旅游竞争力评价指标体系,并运用系统动力学方法对山东半岛城市群2005~2020年旅游竞争力变化趋势进行仿真分析。结果表明:未来15年,单体城市旅游竞争力均呈现稳中有升的变化趋势,2020年各城市旅游竞争力排名依次为:青岛、济南、烟台、日照、威海、东营、淄博、潍坊;与单体城市相比,城市群地域单元整体的旅游竞争力提升幅度较大,表明城市群旅游一体化与区域整合是提升山东半岛城市群旅游竞争力的重要途径。

A study on dynamic simulation and evaluation of tourism competitiveness in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration

With the flourishing development of tourism,competitions among different tourism destinations are becoming tenser day by day.In order to realize the goal of surviving and even sustainable development of tourism,it is urgent and necessary for tourism destinations to enhance the understanding,cultivation and management of tourism competitiveness.Analysis and appraisement on the dynamic developing trend of tourism competitiveness is the fundamental method as well as the basic work to achieve the target above. Taking Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as the study area,the article establishes the appraisal index system for the entire region and its interior cities,respectively,which include the following five aspects: driving forces for tourism development,tourism development level,tourism impacts,tourism economic connection and tourism contributions of different cities to the whole region.As tourism competitiveness has the characteristics of comprehensiveness,systematicness and dynamicness,the article establishes the dynamic simulation model by use of the system dynamics,simulates and analyzes the tourism competitiveness trend of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2020.The results show that: tourism competitiveness of the interior cities presents a steadily increasing trend in the next 15 years;at the end of the simulation period,the competitiveness rank of the eight cities will be Qingdao,Jinan,Yantai,Rizhao,Weihai,Dongying,Zibo and Weifang;compared with the individual cities,competitiveness of the entire Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration increases to a greater extent,which reflects that integrated development and regional combination of tourism are important means to upgrade tourism competitiveness in this region.