中国陆路交通干线自然灾害风险刍议

中国经济的快速发展,使陆路交通的密度、长度和搭乘陆路交通工具的物资和人口流动规模日益增加,交通客流和物流的增多也使遭遇自然灾害的风险进一步加大。通过数据统计、GIS方法,对我国陆路交通干线(公路、铁路)的密度和过去死亡人口和自然灾害损失的模数进行叠合分析,认为在自然灾害频次和灾种呈上升趋势的背景下,陆路交通干线的极端灾害事件日益增多,中国自然灾害的风险因子在地域分布上中、东部高,西北部低。我国目前众多的极端灾害事件对交通干线的影响,是因为对交通干线的风险因子识别研究不足,应该从节点城市、干线路段和区域交通网络三个方面对陆路交通干线自然灾害的风险展开研究。

ArusticopiniononnaturaldisasterriskresearchoflandtraffictrunklinesinChina

With the rapid development of the economy in China, the densities and lengths of the land traffic trunk lines have changed largely. Due to the convenient traffic, the economic lifestyle and the scale of human activity have also obviously changed, which are influenced by the increasing traffic facilities. However, as the increase of the flow of travelers and goods, the exposed extent of the traffic trunk lines was also increasing sharply. At the same time, the quantity and frequency of natural disasters were increasingly induced by global change, which enlarged the risk of exposing human to natural disasters in the traffic trunk lines. Based on a brief review of the domestic and foreign natural disaster risk research situations of land traffic trunk line, this paper pointed out that at present relevant studies started late and the research contents were also dispersive in China; the risk distinguish of natural disasters happening on the traffic trunk lines still need to be further improved and the risk research should also be strengthened in China. This paper analyzed the relation between the density of China's land traffic trunk lines (railway and highway) and the past dead people and natural disaster loss modulus through the data statistics and GIS technique. The result showed that the influences of extreme disaster events on China's land traffic trunk lines has become greater, which severely affected the flow of travelers and goods, and also influenced the disaster support; the spatial distribution of the natural disaster risk factors presented a higher pattern in the central and eastern China, but a lower one in the western. However, at present the distinguished research of the risk factors is still penurious and there was lack of risk management. Thus it is necessary to reinforce the natural disaster risk research of land traffic trunk lines in China. The natural disaster risk research on land traffic trunk lines should be focused on three aspects, that is, the node city, the section of the trunk line and the regional traffic network.