我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异

分析了我国人口老龄化发展的三个阶段,并预测了它的发展趋势。研究了人口老龄化的地理区域差异,表明在城乡之间、东西部地区之间和各民族地区之间的差异比较明显,而在贫困地区与非贫困地区之间有不同程度的差异。为按照各地区人口老龄化发展的不同特点,因地制宜地解决我国人口老龄化问题提供依据。

The development stages and trend of population ageing and its regional differences in China

Population ageing means the increase trend of elder population over 60 or 65 years in an area or a country.The problem of the population ageing is a severe challenge which every country in the world has to face at present age.The development of the population ageing resulted in the increase of the elder population quantity so that it a the great pressure on the enterprise of providing for the aged.This problem is more severe for China because of: ① The total quantity of elder population over 60 years is very big.It will be up to one hundred and thirty millions by the year of 2000 year.② The development speed of the population ageing is very fast.In genernal, it took 50-80 years for changing from the adult type country of population to the old type country in most western countries.However, it would only need about twenty years to finish this transition in China.③ The development speed of population ageing greatly outstriped the speed of economic development.In China, the level of economic development is still in the stage of developing country, but the speed of the population ageing outstripted that in the developed countries.So, it will bring a heavy pressure on the modernization construction of China.The population ageing of China therefore should be gone deep into study in order to seek the countermeasure of accepting this challenge.This paper would approach the development stages and trend of population ageing and its regional differences.The development of the population ageing in China have experienced three stages: ① In 50's, the coefficient of elder population rose slowly, and paced up and down between the adult type country of population and that of the old type.② In 60's, there was an abviously decrease of the coefficient of elder population because of the influence of economic difficulties during 1960-1962.③ After 70's, the coefficient of elder population rose step by step, and will stride quickly forward into the old type country of population.It is estimated that the speed of the population ageing in China will increase continually untill the 40' s in 21 century.It will be up to the peak in 2040 year.After the 50' s next century it will go down slowly.It can be seen that the population ageing in China will go on for several decades.There are regional differences in the population ageing of China: ① It is different between city and countryside.The speed of the population ageing is faster in city than that in countryside.However the total quantity of elder population is greatly bigger in countryside than that in city.The attention must be therefore paid to both city and countryside in solving the problem of population ageing in China, and do not bias anyone.② It is different between the east and west of China.The degree of population ageing is higher in the east than that in the west of China.③ It is different between the areas of nationalities.Based on the calculation in 1990, the nationalities whose coefficients of elder population were higher (over 4 5%)were Han, Zhuang, Tujia, Buyi, Bai, Zang and Uygur.The nationalities with lower coefficients of elder population (below 4 0%)were Li, Hani, Monggol and Hazak.