2000-2010年广州市人口老龄化空间分异及形成机制

分析2010年广州市人口老龄化空间分布特征,并采用因子生态分析方法、聚类分析方法划分老年人口社会空间地域类型,将两者叠加分析,得出广州市人口老龄化空间分异可划分为8种类型区并呈圈层和扇形分布的特征。通过与2000年的人口老龄化空间分异进行比较,归纳出广州市人口老龄化空间分异的变化具有历史继承性、随城市开发进程而结构趋于复杂化、出现类型更新和类型区范围变化等特征。广州市人口老龄化空间分异模式主要分为四种：老城区延续发展模式、中心城区更新转变模式、近郊区急剧转变模式、远郊区分异发展模式。最后从城市历史发展传承、城市规划建设引导、住房等制度变迁影响、房地产发展等方面探讨了广州市人口老龄化空间分异形成机制。

Spatial differentiation and the formation mechanism of population aging in Guangzhou in 2000- 2010

Population aging is an important problem in the world in the 21st century. China faces a series of challenges caused by rapid population aging. Changes of the spatial distribution of population aging will pose higher requirements for dynamic public facility and service allocation systems in metropolises, thus understanding the spatial differentiation of population aging will better help us formulate urban planning and public policies to meet the spatial need of the elderly. As the pioneer of China's reform and opening-up policy, Guangzhou faces increasingly serious problems of population aging. Using the fifth and the sixth census datasets of the neighborhood (Jiedao in Chinese) level, this paper firstly analyses the spatial distribution characteristics of population aging in Guangzhou city by GIS spatial analysis in 2010, and finds the difference of the central city to the periphery in a "circle & fan" shape. Besides, the factorial ecological analysis and cluster analysis are utilized to reveal the social spatial characteristics and classify the types of the social area of the aged respectively. In addition to that, both results mentioned above are overlaid to analyze the spatial differentiation of population aging in Guangzhou, and this paper categorizes it into 8 types: old city of Senile Late stage, enterprise units of Senile Midterm stage, institutional units of Senile Midterm stage, traditional rural township of Senile Initial stage, mixed residential block of Senile Initial stage, mixed residential block of the adult type, educational and scientific research units of the adult type as well as new district of the young type. Compared with the spatial differentiation of population aging in 2000, the paper finds out that the main factors in social spatial structure and the social spatial types of old population have significantly changed during the past 10 years, and the changes of spatial types of population aging in this city have its historical inheritance. Besides, the structure becomes more complicated with type renewal and changes of the typical areas' scale occurring with the urban development. The patterns of spatial differentiation of population aging in Guangzhou could be divided into four types, i.e. continuous development in old town, renewal transformation in the city center, sharp transition in the suburbs, and differentiation development in the outer-suburbs. Lastly, this paper discusses the formation mechanism of the spatial differentiation of population aging in Guangzhou: the city's historical basis, urban planning and construction guidance, the influence of housing system's changes, and the real estate development all play their roles in the formation of the spatial differentiation of population aging in Guangzhou, but the influence of the factors varies.