中国分省畜禽产污系数优化及污染物构成时空特征分析

为提升畜禽产污量估算精度，揭示2002-2010 年中国及各省畜禽污染物规模构成（养殖模式及畜禽种类） 的时空分布特征，首先对产污系数和畜禽养殖量核算进行了优化研究，在此基础上从总量、变化率、养殖模式、畜禽种类等角度展开分析。结果表明：① 经优化的中国分省分畜种产污系数可较好地反映各省单头畜禽排泄量的空间差异。② 畜禽产污量的分布符合中国畜牧业区划特征，相对高值区的分布与畜牧业比重的高值区吻合，且污染物高产区逐渐向东北方向移动。③ 各省畜禽污染物的养殖模式构成特征符合中国经济带或经济区的分布。④ 从畜禽种类构成角度，以辽宁-黄淮海-黄土高原东部-西南山地区西部为界，分界区两侧具有截然相反的构成特征。

Optimizing pollutant generation coefficients of livestock industry and mapping patterns of the pollutant constitution in China

To improve the accuracy of estimated pollutant production of livestock and poultry and reveal the spatial-temporal distribution of pollution constitution (breeding patterns and species) during 2002-2010 at provincial and national levels in China, this paper examines the livestock and poultry pollutant generation coefficients optimization and the accurate calculation of the livestock and poultry amount. Based on this, it analyses the spatial-temporal distribution of total amount, change rate of livestock and poultry pollutant, and the impact of different livestock and poultry breeding patterns and species on livestock and poultry pollutant. The results demonstrate that: (1) The 190 optimized pollutant generation coefficients of 11 livestock and poultry species for 31 provinces can not only reflect the spatial difference of pollutant production of each province, but also can be used to estimate livestock and poultry pollutant amount without the independent coefficient for each province at present. (2) From the view of total production of livestock and poultry pollutant, the distribution conforms to the comprehensive livestock husbandry zone in China. The regions with higher values coincide with the proportion distribution of livestock husbandry, which are located in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang plateau, the Huang-Huai-Hai (Huanghuaihai) Plain, western Southeast China and mountainous areas of Southwest China. The provinces where the annual pollutant production is more than 100 million tons gradually move to Northeast China, while the regions with lower values are mainly in the Loess Plateau, Tibetan Plateau, central and eastern Southeast China and four municipalities. (3) As for the livestock and poultry breeding pattern, the distribution of breeding pattern in each province is in line with that of economic zone. Modern breeding pattern has replaced scatter feed model and becomes the largest contributor to livestock and poultry pollution. However for provinces in economic zone of west China, the scatter-feed pattern is still the main source. The contribution rate of specialized household pattern declines from northeast to southwest, while for the large scale breeding pattern, the pollution is decreasing from coastal to inland areas. Nevertheless, the distributions of average annual growth rate of pollutant production in different breeding patterns for each province are contrary to the above features. (4) From the perspective of livestock and poultry species, the pollutant amount made by working animals is declining and the commercial animals is the opposite. There exists an obvious boundary, Liaoning-Huanghuaihai Plain-eastern Loess Plateau-western Southwest China, for pollutant production made by different species. To the southeast of the boundary, the largest contributors of livestock and poultry pollution are single-stomach animals. On the contrary, the largest contributors are ruminant animals in Northwest China.