尺度政治视角下的地缘能源安全评价方法及应用

通过引入政治地理学的尺度政治、国际关系学的安全理论和能源安全理论，考虑到能源争夺中的尺度转换、地缘环境中的地缘关系和地缘结构以及安全的三个属性等因素，重新构建了地缘能源安全评价模型，并基于此模型对1995-2010 年俄罗斯太平洋石油管道建设中的中国地缘石油能源安全进行了定量评价。结果表明：① 从时间上来看，中国在俄罗斯太平洋石油管道建设中的地缘石油安全指数不断攀升，中国在此石油能源尺度政治争夺中越来越处于不利地位，考虑到今后韩国、美国等国家的参与，竞争将更加激烈；② 从地缘关系上看，中日两国能源竞争指数趋于减少，但是两国从俄罗斯进口能源竞争加剧；③ 俄罗斯能源出口战略长期以来一直偏重欧洲，但是已经出现转向的趋势，其能源出口战略指数已显著下降；④ 中国石油消费的比重稳定和中俄之间友好关系在一定程度上缓解了中国地缘石油能源安全；⑤ 从地缘结构上来看，中国经济增长带动下的整体综合国力的增强，将会加剧东北亚地区的地缘石油竞争。

Geopolitical energy security evaluation method and its application based on politics of scale

Combining the theories of politics of scale from political geography, security theory from international relations and energy security theory, and putting the scale conversion of energy contention, geographical relationship and geo-structure in geo-setting, and the three properties of safety in consideration, this paper rebuilds a geo-energy security evaluation model and uses the model to quantitatively evaluate China's geo-oil energy security in the Russian Pacific oil pipeline construction from 1995 to 2010. Five results could be drawn as follows: (1) from the aspect of time, an up-surging Geo-oil Safety Index of China in the Russian Pacific oil pipeline construction indicated an increasing disadvantage of China in the geo-oil contention by politics of scale. If the United States and South Korea are involved, the competition would be further intensified;(2) from the aspect of geopolitical relationship, a general decrease occurred in the Sino-Japan Energy Competition Index, but a specific increase appeared in the competition of energy imports from Russia by China and Japan individually;(3) from the aspect of regional strategy of energy export, an obvious downward tendency in Energy Export Strategy Index showed that Russia has changed its exports destination off Europe;(4) from the aspect of geosecurity, a relatively steady proportion of China's oil consumption and a friendly comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia reduced the worries of China's geo-oil energy security to some extent;(5) from the aspect of geopolitical structure, the increasing comprehensive national power in China driven by the rapid economic growth will intensify the geo-oil competition in Northeast Asia.