1985-2012年哈尔滨自然历主要物候期变动特征及对气温变化的响应

利用中国物候观测网观测数据,新编制了哈尔滨地区1985-2012年的自然历。通过与原自然历（1963-1984年）比较,揭示了近30年以来哈尔滨地区21个植物99个物候期的变化特征,并通过物候期与气温的相关分析探讨了物候变化原因。结果表明：自1985年以来,哈尔滨的春季、夏季、秋季的物候期开始日期提前,冬季开始日期推迟。其中春季（以白榆叶芽膨大期为代表）、夏季（以暴马丁香开花始期为代表）、秋季（以金银忍冬果实成熟期为代表）分别提前了7天、6天和19天,冬季（以胡桃楸落叶末期为代表）推迟了2天。各物候期在春季、夏季、秋季的平均日期相较于原自然历提前了3~11天,在冬季推迟了3天。四季各物候期最早日期均以提前为主,夏冬季物候期最晚日期有所推迟。另外,各季节内部分物候期出现的先后次序发生了变化。近30年该地区气温的升高是物候季节开始日期提前的首要原因。且不同植物和物候期对气温变化的响应敏感性不同可解释物候季节内物候期先后次序的变化。

Variations of main phenophases of natural calendar and analysis of responses to climate change in Harbin in 1985-2012

According to the phenological data from Chinese Phenology Observation Network of Chinese Academy of Sciences, we compiled the natural calendar for 1985-2012 with 21 plant species and 99 phenophases in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province. Comparing the calendar with the original one for 1963-1984, the research revealed the variation characteristics of 99 phenophases. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to examine the relationships between changes of phenophases and climatic drivers. Since 1985, timing of phenological spring (represented by the timing of bud expansion of Ulmus pumila), summer (represented by the timing of 50% of full flowering of Syringa reticulate) and autumn (represented by the timing of fruit maturity of Lonicera maackii) have been advanced by 7 days, 6 days and 19 days respectively, while timing of phenological winter (represented by the timing of end of leaf fall of Juglans mandshurica) has been delayed by 2 days. Meanwhile, compared with the original calendar, the average dates of phenophases have been advanced by 3 to 11 days in spring, summer and autumn, but delayed by 3 days in winter. The earliest date of phenology showed advances mainly in all seasons, while the latest dates of phenology were delayed in summer and winter. The order of some phenophases in phenological seasons changed with different degrees. Temperature changes before the majority of phenophases is probably the main reason for the changes of phenological season in the last 30 years. Different sensibility of different species and phenophases may result in the change of phenophases order in seasons. The result that the phenological events in spring have been advanced in accordance with many other studies at home and abroad, showing the responses of ecosystems to a warming atmosphere.