北京/上海-香港客源潜力研究*

文章对内地主要城市与香港间的客源潜力进行了研究,包括居民的赴港愿望、交通方式选择,以及上述决策与收入、职业、费用、旅行时间、安全舒适性等因子的关系。分析得出:内地居民的赴港愿望和交通方式选择具有明显特征,以上海、北京为源地或中转地的居民,作为未来访港的客源,具有较大潜力,并在交通方式选择上有较强倾向性,偏好直达列车、直达飞机等便捷、快速的交通方式,且被访者的职业、收入水平等对其旅行方式选择有重要影响;对北京、上海近期与远期赴港客源潜力作了测算。

A STUDY ON THE POTENTIAL PASSENGER TRIPSBETWEEN BEIJING/SHANGHAI AND HONG KONG

It is very important for rational and economical transportation organization to know the decisions of citizens in transport mode choice. Hong Kong had returned to China. It is an inexorable trend that there are more inland citizens hope to visit Hong Kong in the future, while many inland citizens have visited Hong Kong in the past two decades. The passenger flow between Chinese other regions and Hong Kong, for instance, was 8.46 million people in 1980, but it increased to more than 50 million people in 1995. Our contribution in this paper is divided into three parts. First, we surveyed almost 2500 passengers by random sampling in Beijing Capital Airport, Beijing Train Station, Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, Shanghai Train Station, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, Guangzhou Train Station. According to the statistical analysis,the results indicated that most passengers, more than three-fourth, hoped to visit Hong Kong in future. If their dreams of visiting Hong Kong could come true in future, the best transport model they would choose is by air, second transport mode is by train. The percentages are 55% and 45% respectively. Especially, direct air transport mode, direct train transport mode and direct air to Shenzhen then to Hong Kong are pleasant trip choices in transport mode choices. Secondly, the influence of key factors in transport mode choice was discussed. The results showed that income level, professions, transport costs are important influential factors in transport mode choice. The professionals of white-collar class, for example, like to travel by air in transport mode choice, and think it is important to save time during traveling. According to statistical analysis, over 50% (51.8%~68.2%) of people who works in offices like to travel by air. But workers of blue-collar class chose mostly train transport mode, the percentage is over 60%. Thirdly, the results indicated that the number of potential passengers between Hong Kong and Chinese other regions is very large. According to the forecasting analysis, the potential train passenger traffic volume between Beijing and Hong Kong in short-term period is about 400000 people, and the train passenger traffic volume between Shanghai and Hong Kong in short-term period is about 300000 people.