蒙古高原中部气候变化及影响因素比较研究

利用蒙古国中部6个气象站1940~2004年和中国内蒙古自治区中部6个气象站1951~2004年的温度和降水资料,对两地的气候变化及其影响因素作了对比研究。结果表明:20世纪90年代与60年代相比,中国内蒙古6站平均升温1.35℃,蒙古国6站上升1.13℃,2000~2004年与60年代相比:中国内蒙古6站上升1.89℃,蒙古国则为1.37℃,中国内蒙古6站的升温速率高于蒙古国6站。对温度变化趋势作突变性检验,结果表明:温度发生突变时间是纬度较高地区早于纬度较低的地区,大城市早于中小城镇,城市化对温度变化影响比较明显。相对于温度变化,降水变化没有显著性的突变,但有周期变化,中国内蒙古降水变化有2.8年周期,蒙古国有4年、8年的周期,这可能因为中国内蒙古降水水汽主要来源于太平洋,而蒙古国降水的水汽主要来源于北冰洋。

Comparative studies on climate changes and influencing factors in central Mongolian Plateau Region

Mongolian Plateau Region is facing many problems in environment and sustainable development including land degradation, soil erosion, water pollution, solid and hazardous waste disposal, land use conflicts and desertification, which have led to social consequences such as urban unemployment and poverty. Those issues are very serious in central part of the region where population density is relatively high and intensive economic activities have caused several problems such as climate change. The central Mongolian Plateau Region covers seven provinces (municipalities) of Mongolia including Selenge, Darhan-Uul, Ulaanbaatar, Govisumber, Tov, Dundgovi and Dornogovi and four sub-provinces of Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region of China like Huhhot, Baotou, XilinGol, and Ulan Qab. The study aims at comparative analysis of climate changes, impacts on major economic activities and affecting factors in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia using temperature and precipitation data extending from 1940 to 2004 from six stations of Mongolia and 1951~2004 from six stations of Inner Mongolia of China. The results show that in comparison with temperature data in the 1960s, the average temperature has risen by 1.35℃ in the 1990s in Inner Mongolia of China, while it is 1.13℃ in Mongolia. In the period of 2000-2004, the average temperature increase was 1.89℃ in Inner Mongolia and 1.37℃ in Mongolia in comparison with the 1960s, showing a faster temperature increase in Inner Mongolia than that in Mongolia. Mutation test of the changing trend of temperature indicates that temperature mutation usually occurs in the areas with high latitude followed by those of low latitude, and big cities followed by small and medium-sized towns. However, significant change of precipitation was not observed, but periodic changes instead. For instance, duration of precipitation in Inner Mongolia is 2.8 years, while it is 4 and 8 years in Mongolia, and those results reach 95% level of correction test. The climate change has brought about significant impacts on agricultural production, livestock raising and environment, which have been considered as important components of sustainable development of the region in a long run. The results are significant for understanding interaction between climate change, impacts and driving factors, and identifying most important areas for policy intervention, and finally for sustainable use and management of fragile natural resources.