1985~2007年京津冀区域市场一体化水平测度与过程分析

从商品市场一体化角度评价京津冀区域市场整合程度,选取1985~2007年间京津冀三省市九类主要商品相对价格的面板数据,采用基于相对价格理论的市场一体化测度模型,对京津冀区域市场整合程度进行测度。研究发现,23年间,京津冀区域市场的整合水平呈现"平稳-起伏-平稳"的变动趋势,但总体看,区域市场一体化水平趋于提高;相邻省市的市场一体化分析结果显示,京津冀区域市场整合程度呈现内部不均衡,主要体现在京-津、京-冀和津-冀三个相邻省市的市场整合水平不一致,其主导位序由强变弱依次为京-津、京-冀、津-冀;基于时间序列数据的分析还表明,20世纪末以来京津冀市场一体化发展较快,且状态平稳。

Study on the level and procedure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan regional market integration from 1985 to 2007

Based on the theory of relative prices, this paper evaluates the degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional market integration from the perspective of commodity markets. All of the data applied in the models in this study are obtained in the period of 1985~2007, coming from three areas, which are Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province. These panel data cover nine categories of the most important commodities. The study found that, in the period of 23 years, the level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional market integration experiences a course of "Smooth - Fluctuating - Smooth". Specifically, from 1985 to 1988, the regional variance of relative price changes in a small range. This implied that the regional markets of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are in the state of integration. From 1989 to 1997, the relative price variance is in the trend of fluctuations, indicating that in this period, the problems of regional market segmentation are more serious. The study based on time series data also revealed that since the end of the 20th century, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market integration has developed rapidly and stably. Overall, the level of this regional market integration improves year by year. The analysis of market integration between any two areas showed that internal imbalances exist in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. The leading rank of regional market integration is Beijing-Tianjin, followed by Beijing-Hebei, and Tianjin-Hebei. It is worth noting that the regional market of Beijing-Tianjin is a key factor to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional market integration. The conclusions of the research enriches the current theoretical studies on the market integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Further efforts will be made to strengthen the stage of regional integration and policy analysis of how to accelerate the pace of regional market integration.