数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的空间效应与影响路径

数字经济已成为推动经济高质量发展和共同富裕的重要抓手。本文梳理数字经济对中国经济高质量发展的影响机制,并构建了创业与创新两条传导路径。基于2011—2018年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据集,从时空两个维度对数字经济与经济高质量发展的演变特征进行分析,并运用空间杜宾模型和中介效应模型对其影响过程、机理与空间异质性进行实证检验。结果表明：① 2011—2018年间,中国数字经济和经济高质量发展水平呈现整体提升趋势,但两者均存在明显的时空差异特征。② 数字经济水平的提高有助于本地经济高质量发展,而对邻近地区经济高质量发展没有表现出显著的积极影响,即存在一定的数字隔离。③ 在东部、中部和东北地区,数字经济对经济高质量发展具有显著的积极作用,且在东部地区的影响效果最为明显。数字经济对不同类型城市经济高质量发展的影响程度大致呈现从特大城市到中小城市依次递减的趋势。④ 中介效应模型的结果验证了创业和创新水平是数字经济推动经济高质量发展的中介变量,但同时这种传导效应存在明显的空间异质性。

Spatial effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development in China and and its influence path

The digital economy has become a critical factor in promoting high-quality economic development, achieving the digital transformation of the economy, and promoting common prosperity in China. This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of the digital economy on high-quality economic development and constructs two transmission paths via entrepreneurship and innovation. Then, based on the panel data sets of 287 cities at prefecture-level and above in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper analyzes the evolution of digital economy (DE) and high-quality economic development (HQE) from two dimensions of time and space and empirically tests its influencing process mechanism and spatial heterogeneity by using spatial Durbin model and intermediary effect model. The conclusions are drawn as follows. (1) From 2011 to 2018, the levels of DE and HQE in China showed an overall improvement trend, with the kernel density of DE showing different stages. Meanwhile, the levels of DE and HQE have apparent global spatial autocorrelation in terms of spatial characteristics. (2) The DE has formed an obvious H-H (high-high) area in the south-central Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while the HQE has formed a H-H spatial local pattern in the north-central Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. (3) The improvement of the DE is conducive to the HQE of the local economy but has no significant positive impact on the HQE of the neighbouring regions, which means that there may be digital isolation. In the eastern, central and northeastern regions of China, the development of the DE has a significant positive effect on the HQE, which is most evident in the eastern region. From the measurement results of different types of cities, the impact of the DE on the HQE shows a decreasing trend from mega-cities to small and medium-sized cities. (4) The results of the mediating effects model verify that the level of entrepreneurship and innovation is a mediating variable in the DE driving HQE. However, there is significant spatial heterogeneity simultaneously. (5) The paper concludes with how the development of the digital economy can be deployed accordingly at macro and micro levels to achieve sustainable and high-quality economic development.