中国海外投资项目的凑组模式研究——以中老铁路为例

“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国海外项目投资的广度、深度及力度都在不断拓展。凑组理论将所有事物视为复杂关系的动态演变,因而从发展过程及成员关系的角度探究不同海外投资项目的凑组模式,能解构项目凑组中的复杂性并减少不确定性,对于提高项目的风险规避能力、运营能力和盈利能力具有十分重要的意义。基于凑组理论,本文构建中国海外投资项目凑组的理论框架,并以中老铁路为例解析凑组模式。研究表明：① 海外投资项目可以通过技术、产业和市场等价值关联进行凑组,因而中国企业的海外投资可以采用“以一带多,核心集聚”的方式。② 海外投资项目的类型和领域越多样越广泛,项目凑组越完整越稳定。③ 凑组所形成的空间形态取决于项目的空间分布与项目间的价值关系,中老铁路表现为“走廊”式空间形态。④ 中老铁路具备形成项目凑组的条件,但后期技术需求的不确定及相关产业下游项目投资的缺乏,使中老铁路建设带来的延伸市场缺乏项目支撑。

Assemblage mode of China's overseas investment projects: A case study of China-Laos railway

Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, the breadth, depth, and intensity of China's overseas investment projects have been improved by leaps and bounds. The assemblage theory regards everything as the dynamic evolution of complex relationships. It examines the development process and relations between members with bottom-up thinking. Therefore, exploring the assemblage mode of different overseas investment projects can help unpack the complexity and uncertainty in project portfolios and improve their operation, economic benefits, and risk aversion. This paper constructs an assemblage framework to analyze the current situation, self-organization capacity, and assemblage mode of China's overseas investment projects and takes the China-Laos railway as an example. Key findings include: (1) Overseas investment projects can be assembled through value linkages such as technology, industry, and market. Thus, Chinese enterprises can utilize core projects to attract other projects when carrying out overseas investments, which means that large-scale overseas investment projects act as the core, and other peripheral projects provide auxiliary services. This mode can assist adaptation to the "institution-economy-culture" environment of host countries from a macro perspective and meet the practical needs of overseas investment projects at a micro level. (2) The more complex and diverse the types of investment projects are, the more integrated and stable the project assemblages are. Meanwhile, we should pay attention to the economic and social development stage in host countries so as to minimize large-scale leapfrog investment in technologies and industries. (3) The spatial pattern of project assemblage depends on the distribution of projects and the relationship between projects on value chains. The China-Laos railway appears in the "corridor" spatial form. Chinese investments mainly aggregate in the northern provinces of Laos. The high spatial proximity contributes to the formation of project assemblages. (4) China-Laos railway has the foundation to attract other industries and projects. However, the uncertainty of the subsequent technology demand and the lack of investment in downstream industries can not satisfy the extended market brought by the China-Laos railway. Therefore, it is necessary to increase investment in downstream projects of relevant industries along the railway to form the closed loop of value chains. This paper suggests that the assemblage of China's overseas investment projects should be organized in a way in which infrastructure projects serve as the basis, key projects play as the core, and private projects operate as the supplement.