河南区域经济增长俱乐部趋同研究

1990~2004年,河南区域经济增长形成了高收入、中高收入、中低收入和低收入 4个趋同俱乐部。高收入和低收入趋同俱乐部的稳定性最大且连片扩张,区域经济增长水平和空间结构的两极分化日趋增强。总体上,一个区域的"邻居区域环境"对其经济增长及其向何种趋同俱乐部转移有规律性的影响。低收入区域的经济增长及其向中低收入趋同俱乐部转移的概率与其邻居区域的经济增长水平正相关。中低收入区域更倾向于向低收入趋同俱乐部转移。对于中高收入区域,与经济增长水平越高的区域为邻,其向高收入趋同俱乐部转移的概率越大;反之,与经济增长水平越低的区域为邻,其向中低收入趋同俱乐部转移概率也越大。高收入区域的经济增长及稳定性受邻居区域的影响比较小。

Club convergence of regional economicgrowth in Henan Province

The spatial relationships of regions are a very important factor affecting club convergence of regional economic growth.By using the method of Markov chains,we have studied the club convergence of regional economic growth in Henan province,China from 1990 to 2004.We defined the spatial relationships of regions for neighbor regional environment,and then,have studied its influence on the club convergence of regional economic growth in Henan province in the same period using spatial Markov chains. The results show that there were four convergence clubs of regional economic growth in Henan province during 1990~2004,namely,high income club,middle-high income club,middle-low income club,and low income club.The spatial distribution patterns of the four convergence clubs were that high income club located mainly in central regions and northwest border regions of Henan province presents a C-shaped pattern with Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Jiaozuo as its pivot.The middle-high income club was mainly around the high income club.The low income club is a Y-shaped region that was composed of two parts,one was the east plain of Henan to the east of Beijing-Guangzhou railway,and the other was a northwest-southeast zone with low income in the west of Henan.The middle-low income club was relatively dispersed in space,mainly in Nanyang basin,as well as the border regions in the north of Henan.The high income club and low income club were more steady and expanded continuously in space.The levels and spatial structure of regional economic growth in Henan province have been more and more polarized. As a whole,the neighbor regional environment of a region had influences regularly on its economic growth and its transfer path from one convergence club to another.The economic growth and the probability of transferring into middle-low income club of a low income region were correlative with the economic growth levels of its neighbor regions positively.The middle-low income regions tended to be into low income convergence club.If its neighbor regions were with higher economic growth levels,the probability transferring into high income club of a middle-high income region was higher.Whereas,if the economic growth levels of its neighbor regions were lower,the probability of transferring into middle-low income club of a middle-high income region was higher.The economic growth and its steadiness of a high income region were less influenced by its neighbor regions.In addition,the regions that transferred from a club to another almost congregated in two or more than two regions in space.