近邻景区客流季节性比较及其动态关联研究——以西递、宏村、黄山为例

季节性是旅游明显而又重要的特征,要实现旅游业的高效管理,对于旅游季节性的充分理解是必不可少的。本研究以同一旅游目的地区域内的近邻景区为案例(西递、宏村和黄山),利用“十一五”期间的连续月度数据,采用季节调整方法对近邻景区客流的季节性进行分析和比较,在此基础上,运用协动性分析方法,进行近邻景区客流季节性和非季节性因素的动态关联分析,借助动态关联分析结果,探究景区客流季节性的形成根源,反映近邻景区相互作用等非季节性因素在季节性上的表现。研究表明,结合景区间相互作用等非季节性因素进行景区客流季节性研究,有利于全面认识和理解景区客流的季节性,从而增强景区管理的针对性和实效性。

Dynamic relation and comparative analysis of tourism seasonality of neighbor scenic areas: Case studies of Xidi, Hongcun and Huangshan

Seasonality is one of the most significant characteristics of tourism. A good understanding of seasonality in tourism is essential for the efficient management of tourism industry. Taking Xidi, Hongcun and Huangshan in a destination circle as case studies, this paper explores the tourism seasonality of neighbor scenic areas in the same destination according to continuous monthly data of tourist flows during 2006-2010. Firstly, this paper analyzes the characteristics and differences of tourism in seasonal factors decomposed from five-year monthly data by seasonal adjustment method in three scenic areas, and then, as a measure of seasonality, the correlation is studied between the original series and the seasonally corrected series. Secondly, according to time-difference correlation and scroll correlation, the paper analyzes the co-movement between seasonal factor series and seasonally corrected series between the three scenic areas, by which the cause of seasonality including interactions between neighbor scenic areas can be disclosed. Finally, this paper draws the conclusions as follows. There is the interaction on the seasonality between the three scenic areas, the seasonality of Huangshan which plays a dominant role can transmit to Xidi and Hongcun, and produces great influence on their tourism seasonality. Despite independence of tourism development in recent years, Xidi and Hongcun depend on unidirectional radiation effect from Huangshan in tourist flow, with their position as tourist destination unchanged, and their relation has not entered a substitute competition stage. These conclusions show that understanding tourism seasonality by effect of seasonal and non-seasonal factors can be conductive to the management of tourism scienic areas, and provides a new research direction on tourism seasonality.