沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估

根据自然灾害风险评估基本原理,从暴雨洪涝致灾因子危险性及承灾体易损性出发,以沿淮湖泊洼地区域为示范研究区,综合考虑降水量、径流量、地形与河网密度、土地利用数据、人口及经济数据等指标,利用GIS的数据处理功能,运用标准化方法对相关指标进行标准化处理,得到标准化的多源栅格数据;基于层次分析法确定各影响指标因子权重,采用ARCGIS9.2的ModelBuilder建模工具建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型;通过地理信息系统的地图代数功能及综合指数法,得出洪水灾害综合风险等级评价图;并利用2003年沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝淹没面积数据验证暴雨灾害综合风险评估结果;统计分析发现,洪涝淹没区有60.66%位于高风险区,33.29%位于中高风险区,6.05%位于中风险区;结果表明,沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝中高风险及高风险区的准确度达93.95%,洪涝灾害风险评估结果基本符合实际情况,风险评估精度较高。模型的建立及风险区划图的制作,对暴雨洪涝灾害宏观决策具有重要的参考价值。

Assessment of rainstorm flood risk in the area of lakes and depressions along Huaihe River

Taking the lakes and depressions along the Huaihe River region as the research object,several indexes including the rainfall,runoff,terrain,rivers,land use,population,and economic data,were combined in this study,based on the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters and flood disasters factors such as the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body.Preprocessing models provided by GIS software were used to standardize related parameters,and the standardized multi-so...