不同土地-气候情景下三江源地区产水和水土流失评价（英文）

探讨三江源地区产水和土壤保持对整个青藏高原地区、黄河流域、长江流域及澜沧江流域的生态稳定和人类社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。以4期(2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年)土地利用现状数据、降水及气温日值数据集、1∶1000000中国土壤数据库为研究的数据源,结合居民点、道路、河流等矢量数据及人口、经济栅格数据集和CCSM4通用气候模式预测成果数据,以三江源地区为案例区,基于FLUS模型和降尺度校正方法设计4种土地利用发展情景和2种气候变化情景,应用InVEST模型对研究区域2030年不同情景下的产水和土壤侵蚀进行定量模拟。结果表明:(1)不同土地利用发展情景下,草地仍然是三江源地区的优势土地利用类型,面积占比始终大于67%。(2)RCP4.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量增加幅度分别超过7%和3.9%;RCP8.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量的减少幅度分别超过3.3%和1.3%。(3)气候变化在产水量和土壤侵蚀量变化中起主导作用。气候变化对产水量变化的贡献率高达89.97%–98.00%,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在60.49%–95.64%之间;而土地利用类型变化对区域产水量变化的贡献率仅在2.00%–10.03%之间,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在4.36%–39.91%之间。因此,三江源地区土地开发策略应综合考虑区域发展、退耕还林还草的投入及产生的生态效益等多方面问题。

Evaluation of Water Yield and Soil Erosion in the Three-River-Source Region under Different Land-Climate Scenarios

Exploring the water yield and soil conservation in the Three-River-Source region is of great significance for evaluating both the ecological stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yellow River basin,Yangtze River basin and Lancang River basin and the sustainable development of human society.The data sources for this study were land use/cover data from four phases(2000,2005,2010 and 2015),daily precipitation and temperature datasets,and the 1:1000000 Chinese soil database.These data were combined with vector data,such as data on settlements,roads,and rivers,along with population,economic raster datasets and CCSM4 common climate model prediction results.The Three-River-Source region was taken as the study area,and four land use/cover development scenarios and two climate change scenarios were designed based on the FLUS model and the downscaling correction method.The InVEST model was used to quantitatively simulate the water yield and soil erosion under different scenarios in the study area in 2030.The results showed the following:(1)Under different land use/cover development scenarios,grassland remained the dominant land use/cover type in the Three-River-Source region,and the area ratio was always greater than 67%.(2)Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario,the annual water yield and soil erosion increased by more than 7%and 3.9%,respectively.Under the RCP8.5 climate scenario,the annual water yield and soil erosion decreased by more than 3.3%and 1.3%,respectively.(3)Climate change played a leading role in the changes in water yield and soil erosion.Climate change contributed as much as 89.97%–98.00%to the change in water yield and 60.49%–95.64%to the change in the soil erosion modulus.However,the contribution of land use/cover changes to the change in regional water yield was only 2.00%–10.03%,and the contribution of the soil erosion modulus change was 4.36%–39.91%.Therefore,the land use development strategy in the Three-River-Source region should comprehensively consider issues such as regional development,the input of returning farmland to forest and grassland,and the resulting ecological benefits.