广东省耕地粮食综合生产能力研究

农用地分等成果(主要为利用等)与实际粮食产量在空间分布上具有良好的相关性。通过收集广东省耕地利用等指数、粮食综合生产能力等数据并进行大样本统计分析,构建粮食综合生产能力测算模型;对模型进行可信度、方差及回归分析,得出广东省和7个省级二级区的耕地粮食综合生产能力。检验表明,耕地粮食综合生产能力测算结果较为合理,为其他省(市、区)利用农用地分等成果测算耕地粮食综合生产能力,制定区域土地利用总体规划、农业结构调整以及协调区域内城镇化、工业化建设与耕地保护之间的矛盾提供了科学依据。

Comprehensive Production Capacity of Grain on Cultivated Land in Guangdong Province

The farmland gradation achievement(mainly for utilization rank) has the good relevance with grain's comprehensive production capacity in the spatial distribution.On the basis of collecting and analyzing the mass data of the utilization rank index and grain's comprehensive production capacity in Guangdong Province,the grain synthesis productivity reckoning model has been constructed.After the analysis on the credibility,variance and regression of the model,and whole provincial comprehensive production capacity of grain on cultivated land and those of seven sub-region of Guangdong were estimated.After examination,the reckoning results of grain's comprehensive production capacity are more reasonable.It provides a scientific basis for estimating grain's comprehensive production capacity of other provinces and municipalities,the inner adjusting of agriculture structure,the general plan of land utilization,and contradiction harmonizing between the urbanization and industrialization and cultivated land protection.