中国2010-2020年汛期旱涝灰预测研究

选取194个中国地面气候资料国际交换站1971—2000年汛期(5—8月)降水资料序列,应用灰预测方法对中国2010—2020年汛期降水的旱涝趋势进行预测。结果表明:2010—2020年中国由“南涝北旱”转为“北涝南旱”的可能性不大,但是每年汛期都有旱涝灾害发生,北京、银川、石家庄等地区旱灾严重,重庆、南昌、广州等地区汛期水患频繁。有关职能部门应采取相关措施应对未来气候变化,尤其是气候突变可能带来的旱涝灾害。

Grey Prediction of Trend for Chinese Drought-Flood Extent in Flood Season during 2010-2020

Exact Predicting of drought-flood extent in flood season is very important for the economic construction and national security in China.An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security had mentioned that the situation of"the south flood,north drought"now in flood season will convert possibly into"the north flood,south drought"during 2010-2020 in China,because of the decreased reliability of monsoon rains.In this paper,the Grey-Prediction and the"Grey-Weather-Clock-Examination"are used to analyze the rainfall data of the 194 meteorological stations in flood season(May-August)during 1971-2000,in which the selection of the valve value is a key.Because the partial coefficient of water Cst in flood season shows aggrandizement,the Z-index can reflect the degree of drought-flood obviously,and the Zindex is used as valve of the drought-flood.The prediction from 2010 to 2020 shows that the conversion possibility from"the south flood,north drought"to"the north flood,south drought"is not great.The possibility of drought will be more slightly than flood in northern,and flood will be more than drought in southern of China.The possibility of flood will be 63.51% and the possibility of drought will be 36.49%.Droughts will happen seriously in Beijing,Yinchuan,and Shijiazhuang and so on,and floods will occur frequently in Chongqing,Nanchang,and Guangzhou and so on.