东南沿海地区近524年旱涝阶段的探讨

本文从近５２４年东南沿海地区旱涝等级历史序列研究该区域历史时期旱涝发生的时段、技续特征及其演变规律，并对本世纪末至下世纪初的长期旱涝趋势作出阶段预测。

A STUDY ON DROUGHT AND FLOOD PHASES IN THE SOUTHEAST COAST AREA DURING THE PAST 524 YEARS

Based on the analysis of the series of drought and flood grade during the Past 524 years, the character of continuance and interval of drought and flood and their evolution regularitites in the coast of SE China in the historical Period are discussed. It is shown that the historical continuance of dryness or moistness is near 200 years and its second oscilation is 70-80 years the 20-year and 35- 40-year oscilations possibly also exist. The drought or flood years are mostly in groups;the drought phases generally continue 10- 20 years and the flood Phases 10-30 years. According to these characters of Period and phase it is predicted that the drought and flood phase beforethe 2010s will generally trend to normal in the area.