中国非法采伐林木行为的空间分布及其驱动因子

基于2014—2020年中国50 094份非法采伐犯罪的刑事一审判决书，运用空间自相关分析与地理加权回归模型，探究中国非法采伐的空间分布特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：1）非法采伐多发于胡焕庸线东南侧，集中在云贵高原东南边缘、巫山―雪峰山沿线、武夷山脉―南岭沿线、大别山沿线、长白山沿线等地区；2）受自然、社会、经济条件的影响，上述高发区域的非法采伐特征存在明显的区域差异。3）非法采伐具有较强的空间集聚效应，相同地理分区内相邻地市非法采伐在空间上具有较强的稳定性；但不同区域间又呈各异的空间集聚特征，其中西南与东南地区主要呈高-高集聚态势、西北与华北地区为低-低集聚，东北地区与长江沿线地市则不显著。4）不同影响因子在空间上对非法采伐的驱动作用各异，其中自然禀赋是非法采伐产生的必要不充分条件，区域随着城市化与社会经济发展水平的提高能够有效抑制非法采伐的发生。

Spatial Pattern and Driving Factors of Illegal Logging in China

For a long time, China has been committed to combating illegal logging and trade in forests. Although there are still practical difficulties in the governance of illegal timber trade at home and abroad, it is undeniable that significant progress has been made in curbing illegal logging in domestic forests in recent years. Based on 50,094 criminal first-instance verdicts related to illegal logging crimes in China between 2014 and 2020, we have used a spatial autocorrelation analysis and the Geographical Weighted Regression model to explore the spatial distribution characteristics and driving factors of illegal logging in China. The results show that: (1) There is a high rate of illegal logging to the southeast of the Huhuanyong line in China. It is concentrated mainly in areas with strong forest-resource endowment, relatively low economic development level, low urbanization, a large agricultural population, and low degree of nationalization of forest farms, such as the southeast edge of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,the Wushan-Xuefeng Mountains, the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, Dabie Mountain, and Changbai Mountain. In north and northwest China and the economically developed coastal regions, there is little or no evidence of this development trend. (2) Affected by natural, social and economic conditions, there are obvious regional differences in illegal logging characteristics in the above high incidence areas. (3) The spatial autocorrelation of illegal logging in China is strong. The southwest region is the main high-high agglomeration region; the northwest and north China are low-low agglomeration regions; the northeast region and the cities along the Yangtze River are not significant, and the high-high agglomeration trend of the volume of harvested live trees in the southeast region is significant. 4) The spatial distribution pattern and characteristics of illegal logging are formed by multiple driving forces, and different driving factors have different spatial mechanisms. Natural endowment is the necessary and insufficient condition for illegal logging.With the improvement of urbanization and socio-economic development, the occurrence of illegal logging can be effectively suppressed.In conclusion, this study aims to enrich the Environmental Criminology literature, actively exploring criminal geography in relation to environmental crime in China. It also proposes corresponding policy suggestions for the governance and combating of illegal logging. This study has some limitations related to data acquisition and processing; these areas should be strengthened in future research.