广东省水资源承载力量化研究

运用多目标规划和模糊综合评价的理论与方法,结合广东省水资源特点,建立了水资源承载力多目标计算与综合评估模型.模型选取工业产值、人口、农灌面积和COD排放4个目标,以水资源供需平衡、部门用水限制等约束条件,计算了广东省高、中、低3种水资源承载力方案并与城市规划有关指标作了比较,量化反映了水资源对社会、经济和生态环境协调发展瓶颈作用;选择了水资源数量、水资源质量、可供水量、用水状况和社会经济5方面共20个评价指标,综合评估了21个市现状水资源承载力状况,表明各个市水资源利用与社会经济发展匹配性程度.结果表明,

Calculation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Guangdong Province

A model based on the theory and methods of multi-objective computation and grey synthetical evaluation are constructed to estimate the water resources carrying capacity in Guangdong Province.In the model four objectives,which are gross value of industrial product,population,agricultural irrigated area and COD drainage,are selected,and limits of water consumption for departments and the balance of water supply and demand are taken as restraining factors,with the model three schemes,i.e.high,medium and low schemes of water resources carrying capacity in Guangdong Province are calculated,and the results are compared with the relative targets of city planning.It is shown that water shortage would be the bottleneck of the development of society,economy and environment.Twenty indexes in five aspects such as water resources quantity;water resources quality,water supply,water use and socio-economic conditions are selected to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 21 cities in the province.The results could reflect the matching degree between water use and economic development in those cities,and would provide reference for decision-making departments concerning sustainable development in Guangdong Province.