上海市博物馆时空演变特征及其影响因素

利用最邻近指数、核密度、ESDA、网格维数等方法,并基于1978-1985、1986-1997、1998-2016年不同时间阶段,以上海市博物馆为研究对象,探讨其时空演变特征及影响因素。结果发现:1)博物馆可分为探索起步、稳步发展和高速发展3个阶段,内部类型差异显著、多元变化趋势明显;2)博物馆主要分布于中心城区及黄浦江沿岸,空间上不断集聚并呈现典型的"核心-边缘"特征,全局分布具有空间自相关特性、冷热点变动显著;3)中心城区博物馆在分布上表现为分形结构较为复杂的放射状演变趋势,博物馆类型逐渐丰富和多元,不同阶段博物馆类型各有偏重;4)博物馆的时空特征演变是历史文化资源、政府政策导向、区域经济水平、区域人口分异和交通通达条件等多种因素综合作用的结果。

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Impact Factors of Museums in Shanghai

Based on a variety of Spatial Analysis techniques, this study examines the museums in Shanghai and discusses their time-space characteristics and the influences of space-time evolution mechanisms on them. The results show that the development of the said museums can be divided into three phases: exploration development (1978-1985), steady development (1986-1997), and high-speed development (1998-2016); and that the internal types of museums considerably differ from one another. Museums were also found to be primarily concentrated in the central city and along the Huangpu River, showing a typical “core-edge” diffusion feature. Additionally, their spatial distribution in the central city area followed a complex fractal structure radial trend and their development can be described as being gradually rich and diverse. At the same time, the spatiotemporal evolution of museums was discovered to result from the interactions between multiple factors: 1) The regional difference in historical and cultural resources, the most important factor affecting the development of Shanghai’s museums frames the basic pattern and main types of museum spatial distribution and limits the evolutionary trend of the aforementioned development. 2) The strategic orientation of government policies is also a key factor leading to the phased development and changes in these museums. This overall guidance and regulations gradually gave them a logical layout. 3) The financial support for regional development is a prerequisite to ensure the continuous improvement of the museums. 4) Spatial differentiation of regional population is an important influencing factor that causes differences in the museums’ spatiotemporal patterns. 5) And traffic access is the primary location condition that determines the spatiotemporal evolution trend of museums. These have all further strengthened the uneven distribution of museums. As a result, this article arrived at the following findings In terms of the process of benchmarking the construction of an “excellent global city” at a development level, Shanghai should work on further improving the indicators of the museum’s public service, cultural, and creative product revenue. It should insist on building museums to contribute to the cause of cultural preservation and growth as well as optimize its museum business model at the levels of incremental expansion and rational planning. With respect to quantity, it should actively explore museum resources and encourage the participation and investment of nongovernmental forces in museums. In terms of spatial layout, it should consider the balance of the geographical distribution in the various types of museums, break through the unipolar development model that focuses on the central urban area, specifically strengthen the construction of museums in the suburbs, and fully tap surrounding historical and cultural resources. In addition, it must promote the proper allocation of public cultural resources and the localization of its urban culture, thereby fostering the balanced development of museum spatial distribution.