南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价

从建岛潜力、岛礁辐射能力和岛礁承载能力3个方面选取26个指标，采用主客观综合赋权法确定各因子权重，利用线性加权法获得被越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱等国所侵占的南沙44个岛礁的战略价值，并对结果进行空间插值，分析其空间格局特征。结果表明：1）被马来西亚侵占的弹丸礁、越南侵占的南威岛、以及菲律宾侵占的中业岛，其战略价值位列前3，评价得分分别为100、98.42和97.09。2）岛礁辐射能力空间分布格局呈现“NW—SE条带式”，“最高”和“高”等级的区域由研究区西北延伸至东南，然后向东北、西南两侧递减，辐射能力格局中有2个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。承载能力空间分布格局呈现“横向条带式”，由北向南越来越低，有1个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。建岛潜力空间分布格局有3个核心区域及2个次级核心区域。3）岛礁战略价值空间分布格局有3个核心区域，分布于研究区中部、北部及南部，与越南、菲律宾、马来西亚密切相关的核心区域各有1个。越南侵占岛礁最多且空间分布较广，有2个次级核心区域也与越南密切相关，越占岛礁若进一步建设，将形成多核心协同的战略格局，需密切关注。

Strategic and Spatial Pattern Assessments of Spratly Islands Occupied by Foreign Countries

There are up to 44 islands and reefs illegally occupied by foreign countries in the Spratly Islands, that is a serious threat to China's national security. Therefore, the strategic value of the occupied islands and reefs in the Spratly Islands region should be evaluated. Previous studies concentrate on the period before large-scale construction in the region. Additionally, they lack consideration of the islands development potential. Considering this potential, radiation capacity, and carrying capacity, the present study investigated 26 influence factors, their respective assessment values were calculated. The subjective and objective integrated method was used to determine the weight of each factor. The linear weighting method was used to obtain the evaluation results of the strategic value of 44 islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The results were spatially interpolated to identify their spatial pattern characteristics. The main results are as follows: 1) The strategic value evaluation of islands and reefs shows the gradient distribution characteristics. The Danwanjiao reef occupied by Malaysia, Nanweidao Island occupied by Vietnam, and Zhongyedao Island occupied by the Philippines are the ones with highest strategic value, and their evaluation values are 100, 98.42, and 97.09, respectively. The islands and reefs with lower strategic value were mainly sandbars and hidden shoals, such as the Orleana Shoal and Bombay Castle, with scores of less than 40. 2) The strategic value, radiation capacity, carrying capacity, and construction potential of islands and reefs all have a multi-core spatial distribution pattern, in which the spatial distribution pattern of their radiation capacity is the "NW-SE band", the areas of highest and high grades extend from northwest to southeast of the study area and decrease to both sides (northeast and southwest). There are two core regions and two secondary core regions in the pattern of radiation capacity. The spatial distribution pattern of carrying capacity shows a "horizontal strip", which decreases from north to south, in which there is one core region and two secondary core regions. There are three core regions and two secondary core regions in the spatial distribution pattern of island potential and strategic value of islands and reefs. 3) Vietnam occupies the most islands and reefs and has a wide spatial distribution. In the spatial distribution pattern of strategic value of islands and reefs, there is one core region and two secondary core regions closely related to Vietnam. Bishengjiao, Liumenjiao, Nanhuajiao, Wumiejiao, and West reefs are occupied by Vietnam and have a great potential for building islands and reefs, as their geographical location is of great strategic significance. Further construction would support the core areas of islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, which could lead to a pincer attack on China's garrison islands and reefs, thereby requiring close attention.