桃花迟早年型的冬季气候特点及花期预测

对广西桂林市桃花迟早年型冬季气候特点的分析表明,桃花偏早年型具有冬季降雨量偏多,12月中下旬气温偏低,1月下旬至2月下旬气温偏高等主要特征.用模糊数学方法对桃花迟早年型进行预测,可为花卉开花期应用和旅游业提供气象服务.

WINTER CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS AND FLORESCENCE FORECAST OF EARLY AND LATE PEACH

From statistics of the data of the peach phenophase in agro-meteorological station in Guilin, Guangxi and the meteorological data from 1983 to 2004, peach is divided into early one and late one based on its florescence. The effects of weather factors on peach florescence in winter from December to February are analysed. It can be concluded that the early peach has such corresponding characteristics that are more rainfall in winter, lower air temperature in mid to late December but higher air temperature from late January to late February. Also the frequencies of major climate evaluation indexes that have effects on the peach anthesis are calculated. It can be seen that more climate indexes for early blooming peach occur than those for late blooming peach. Based on above results, a forecast model is built for the early and late blooming peach by fuzzy mathematic method, which can offer meteorological means for peach florescence forecast.