基于因子分析的广西旅游区划

引入因子分析法，围绕旅游业发展现状和总体经济发展水平两大因素，选取了2010年广西统计年鉴中反映旅游业发展水平的11个主要旅游经济指标，运用SPSS软件对这些指标进行因子分析，得出广西14个地级城市旅游业发展水平综合排名，并结合各地级城市GDP的排名情况，验证广西旅游业发展“十二五”规划中关于旅游区划的定位决策。广西旅游区划的因子分析显示：以桂林市为“旅游龙头”的提法不全面；以南宁、桂林、梧州、北海为四大“旅游集散地”的提法中，梧州不符合实际；“三大国际旅游目的地”的提法中，“红水河流域”不符合实际；“两条旅游发展带、七大旅游发展区”的划分与实际情况基本吻合。基于“旅游业-GDP”维度的广西旅游区划分析显示，14个地级城市可以分为4类：旅游业和GDP均发展较好的城市，包括南宁市、桂林市、柳州市和百色市；旅游业发展较好而经济较落后的城市，包括河池市和北海市；旅游业和GDP发展均较为落后的城市，包括贺州市、防城港市、崇左市、来宾市和钦州市；旅游业发展较落后而经济发展较好的城市，包括贵港市、梧州市和玉林市。桂林市和南宁市作为广西旅游业最发达的两个城市，应根据市场定位的不同形成“南北旅游双引擎”，旨在引领和带动全区旅游业的整体发展，而GDP与旅游业存在正向关系的广西旅游区划应该是有重点、分层次地合理布局才能遵循市场发展的客观规律。

Tourism Regionalization of Guangxi Based on Factorial Analysis

With SPSS software, this paper makes a factorial analysis on the 11 major tourism economic indicators selected from the Guangxi 2010 Statistical Yearbook to get a comprehensive rank of tourism development level for 14 main cities in Guangxi, and combining with the GDP rank of those cities, the paper tries to examine the feacibility of the tourism regionalization in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. From the results of the analysis, the authors argue that it would not be comprehensive to designate Guilin as the leading tourism city in the Plan; though Nanning, Guilin, Wuzhou and Beihai are planned to be the four major tourist distribution centers, Wuzhou does not conform with its reality; and also it would not be appropriate to designate the Red River Valley as one of the three international tourist destinations of Guangxi. However, the planning of "two Tourism Development belts and seven tourism Development regions" is in accord with actual situation. According to "Tourism - GDP" dimension, the authors consider that the 14 cities in Guangxi can be classified into 4 categories: category one, including Nanning, Guilin, Liuzhou and Baise, where both tourism and GDP develop well; category two, including Hechi and Beihai, where tourism develops well but economy poorly; category three, including Hezhou, Fangchenggang, Chongzuo, Laibin and Qinzhou, where both tourism and GDP develop poorly; category four, including Guigang, Wuzhou and Yulin, where tourism develops poorly but economy well. As the two most important developed tourism cities, Guilin and Nanning should serve as the northern and southern engines, respectively, to drive the overall tourism development of Guangxi according to their market positioning.