新疆南部地区暖冬年与春夏季降水的相关分析

利用春夏季(3~8月)12个站降水资料以及冬季(12~02月)温度资料,通过统计方法选取新疆南部地区温度异常年份与春夏季降水异常年份,并进行相关分析,结果表明:暖冬年份对应的来年春夏季总降水量偏多;反之,冷冬年对应的春夏季降水总量偏少。再利用NCEP/NCAR1960-2000年全球月平均网格点资料分析500 hPa高度场环流特征,结果表明:暖冬年前期环流特征为西低东高型,冷冬年前期环流特征为西高东低型,具有反位相关系。暖冬年后期才为西高东低型,与冷冬年前期相较起点晚,从而影响到来年的环流入夏时间,这可能就是导致暖冬年份来年降水增多的原因之一。

Correlation between years of warm winter and precipitations of spring and summer

Based on the meteorological data including spring(March-August) precipitation and winter(November-February) temperature,which are from 12 weather stations located in South Xinjiang,the paper selects the abnormal years in winter temperature and spring-and-summer precipitation,and conducts correlation analysis on the data.The results show that more precipitation occurs in the year after the warm winter;however,less occurs in the year after the cold winter.According to the mean monthly grid data in 1960-2000 from NCEP/NCAR,the paper analyzes general circulation features at 500 hPa of the years that are exceptional in winter temperature and spring-and-summer precipitation.It shows that the air pressure is higher in east than that in west before warm winter,however,it is reverse before the cold winter.Compared with warm winter,there is a delay in the evolution of the important weather influencing system in cold winter.It Could be one of the reasons for more precipitation happening in the next year after warm winter.