近20年来烟台沿海地区土地利用变化研究

基于地理信息技术、景观格局分析理论和马尔可夫模型,利用1986年、1992年、2000年和2004年四期TM数据,定量分析了烟台沿海地区土地利用类型变化及其景观格局动态特征。结果显示:近20年来,烟台沿海地区各种土地类型变化及其相互转化频繁。水域、果园和建设用地分别增加335.61%、70.43%和134.48%,而耕地、林地分别减少18.63%和20.75%。各种土地利用类型空间格局变化显著,耕地、果园破碎度增加,连通性降低,水域、林地和建设用地则趋于集中,连通性增强,景观类型有向多元化方向发展的趋势。马尔可夫模型预测表明,从2008年至平稳期,水域、耕地和林地面积将持续减少,建设用地和果园将逐年增加。耕地保护与建设用地扩张之间的矛盾将更加突出。

Change of land use of Yantai Coastland in recent 20 years

Based on translated data from remote sensing TM imageries in 1986,1992,2000 and 2004,the paper analyzed quantitatively the dynamic features of land use change and landscapes pattern at the coastland in Yantai using GIS and landscape pattern theory.The results indicate that water area,orchard and building land increased by 335.61%,70.43% and 134.48%,respectively,arable land and forestland decreased by 18.63% and 20.75%,respectively,which showed that the kinds of land use types changed frequently in recent 20 years.At the same time,landscape pattern at Yantai coastland changed significantly during the research phase.The fragmentation index of arable land and orchard increased and their connectedness reduced;while the concentration degree of water body,woodland and build land increased respectively,the connectedness boosted up,which suggested that the landscape patterns had the trend of more orientation development.Predicted results by Markov model showed that the water area,cultivated land and woodland would keep on decreasing,while construction land and orchard land would increase year after year from 2008 to placidity period.It suggested that the contradiction between the farmland preservation and expansion of construction land would be more acute.