新疆全要素生产率估算及其经济增长源泉分析

为深入探究新疆经济增长的驱动因素，基于1990-2015年新疆统计数据，运用索洛残差法对新疆的全要素生产率进行了估算，并对估算结果与影响新疆全要素生产率变动的技术进步因素和制度变迁因素进行了计量分析。研究表明：（1）新疆经济增长主要依赖资本和劳动力等要素投入驱动，是一种典型的要素投入型经济增长方式。（2）新疆全要素生产率变化具有很强的累积性和路径依赖性，其中技术转移和转化是新疆全要素生产率变化的主要原因，而制度进步和自主研发对新疆全要素生产率变化的影响不明显。（3）新疆制度发育尚不完全，阻碍生产要素优化配置的因素很多。（4）新疆的R&D经费投入偏低，尚未形成规模效应，未能显著地促进新疆全要素生产率的提高。基于本文的研究结论给出相应的政策启示。

Estimation of total factor productivity and the analysis of the source of economic growth in Xinjiang

Research on the source of economic growth is one of the key issues in the study of macroeconomics and regional sustainable development. Total factor productivity(TFP)is the output growth due to technical progress,efficiency improvement and other factors,while remove the capital and labor inputs,which is the residual error after excluding the contribution of factor inputs. Total factor productivity(TFP)is an important tool to analyze the source of economic growth,and the analysis result is an important basis for government to formulate long-term economic growth policies. Meanwhile,total factor productivity is an important index to measure the quality of economic growth of a country or a region,and it is also one of the important goals of economic growth. With China's economy entered a new normal period,it will become an important issue for Xinjiang about how to achieve sustainable development. Based on the annual data of Xinjiang during1990-2015,this paper used Solow residual method to calculate the total factor productivity(TFP)of Xinjiang. Moreover,in order to explore the source of the sustainable development of Xinjiang,econometric analysis was applied to identify the role of each influence factor,such as technological progress and institutional change quantitatively. The results show as follows:(1)The momentum of economic growth is still derived from the capital and resource input in Xinjiang,and it is a typical economic growth model driven by factor input.(2)The total factor productivity of Xinjiang has a strong accumulation and path dependence. Technology transfer and transformation are the main reasons for the change of total factor productivity,while the impact of institutional improvement and the development of independent research on the total factor productivity of Xinjiang is not obvious.(3)The institutional development of Xinjiang is not complete,there are many factors that hinder the optimal allocation of production factors.(4)The R&D funding of Xinjiang is still low,the scale effect has not yet formed,thus it fails to effectively promote the improvement of total factor productivity(TFP). Finally,based on the conclusions of this paper,we draw some useful implications for the structural reform on the economic supply side of Xinjiang.