贸易便利化、对外直接投资的出口效应分析

贸易便利化、对外直接投资是影响出口的重要因素。运用主成分分析法对全球123个国家（地区）2009-2015年间的贸易便利化水平进行测算，并结合中国相应年份的对外直接投资、出口等相关数据构建随机前沿引力模型，分析贸易便利化、对外直接投资的出口效应，为进一步探析在贸易便利化不同的区域，中国对外直接投资与贸易便利化共同对中国出口的影响，依据贸易便利化水平的高低将样本分为便利化高、低的两组，分别再次进行回归分析。研究表明，贸易的便利化、对外直接投资可显著的促进中国出口，其每增长1%，可分别带动出口0.212%、0.56%的增长；东道国贸易便利化较好区域，对外直接投资、贸易便利化两者交叉项系数达0.23，而较差区域仅为0.07。

Trade facilitation's and OFDI's export effect

Because of the weak recovery of global economy, slow development of European market and American market, the decline of major international commodity prices, the appreciation of RMB and other factors, foreign trade has gone into a serious situation and we need to explore a new mechanism of trade growth. Trade facilitation will reduce trade costs and promote bilateral trade. Direct investment towards foreign countries has an important influence on export. However, there is few people studying on whether the export of direct investment towards foreign countries is effected by trade facilitation. In order to analyze trade facilitation, the effect of direct investment towards foreign countries on export and whether the export of direct investment towards foreign countries is effected by trade facilitation, this essay constructs trade facilitation Index system, measure trade facilitation level of 123 countries(regions included)of the world from 2009 to 2015 with principal components analytic method, construct the stochastic frontier gravity model combined with GDP, population, spatial distance, direct investment towards foreign countries and export data. In order to analyze whether the export of direct investment towards foreign countries is effected by trade facilitation, this essay will split the samples into higher group and lower group according to the level of trade facilitation and analyze again separately. According to researches, first of all, trade facilitation and direct investment towards foreign countries greatly motivates Chinese export. Every 1% increase of the former will give 0.212%、0.56% increase of the latter. Second, the increase of trade facilitation level will remarkably stimulate the export of direct investment towards foreign countries. Their cross term coefficient reaches 0.23. In separately analysis, regions with high level of trade facilitation has a 0.37 high level of cross term coefficient, which is much higher than 0.06 of regions with low level of trade facilitation. Therefore, speaking of direct investment towards foreign countries, the investment towards regions with high level of trade facilitation needs to be reinforced to stimulate export.