哈萨克斯坦能源消费的碳排放动态演进分析

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。根据IPCC碳排放计算指南缺省值计算了哈萨克斯坦共和国1992-2010年的碳排放量，并对哈萨克斯坦近20 a来碳排放进行阶段划分，采用对数平均迪氏指数法（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index），对碳排放量进行因素分解，定量分析能源结构、能源效率和经济发展对不同阶段碳排放的影响。结果表明：（1）1992-2010年，哈萨克斯坦一次能源消费的碳排放量整体呈先下降后上升的“U”型曲线，拐点在1999年。煤炭消费仍然是碳排放的主要来源，这是受长期以煤为主能源供应政策影响的一种必然结果；（2）碳排放不同阶段各影响因素的作用程度不同。总体来看，经济增长是碳排放量增加的主要推动因素，能源强度降低是抑制碳排放量增长的主要贡献因子。并以此提出哈萨克斯坦未来能源战略的一些政策建议。

Variations and influence factors of carbon emission of primary energy consumption in Kazakhstan

Carbon cycle is basic element cycle on the earth，and it plays a vital role in earth system evolution and sustainable development of human society. In the global research of carbon cycle，fossil-fuel energy consumption，cement production and land use are three main sources of carbon emission which related to human economic activities and fossil-fuel energy consumption is the largest anthropogenic source of carbon emissions and the primary cause of greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere. In this paper，with the application of energy consumption data in Kazakhstan from 1992 to 2010 collected from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency，carbon emissions every year in Kazakhstan are calculated according to the default value of carbon emission calculating guidelines of IPCC，the changes of total carbon emission，carbon emission structure and carbon emission intensity in Kazakhstan are systematically analyzed. The elements of carbon emission were separated with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and this paper analyzed their influence factors. Results showed as follows：Kazakhstan’s carbon emissions from primary energy consumption performed an overall "U"-shaped curve from 1992 to 2010，the inflection point appeared in the year of 1999. Overall energy consumption structure of Kazakhstan’s coal-dominated energy consumption patterns have not changed，coal consumption is still the major source of carbon emissions，which is related to the impct of long-term energy supply policy on coal listed as a main energy resource. The impact of conomic development on carbon emissions has shown some positive significances，the main driving factor increasing carbon emission. Energy structure has shown some negative effects. Reduction in energy intensity is the main contribution factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions. Therefore，to control the growth of carbon emissions in Kazakhstan，an important measure is to accelerate the changes in the local primary energy consumption structure.