近25a来新疆农作物水足迹与经济增长的空间关系分析

水—经济空间关系是干旱区与半干旱区水资源研究的热点，揭示水—经济空间分布演变规律和因果关系，可为优化水资源合理配置、合理部署产业结构调整政策提供理论和决策参考。研究应用水足迹理论，核算新疆各地州1991—2015年农作物水足迹，结合信息熵值理论分析新疆各地州农作物水足迹、国内生产总值、第一产业增加值其熵值的空间演变规律及因果关系。结果表明：新疆农作物水足迹与第一产业增加值、国内生产总值空间演变整体向着均衡有序的方向发展，水—经济的空间不均衡性逐步缩小；新疆农作物水足迹显著影响其第一产业增加值空间演变，影响期1～5 a，农业经济空间分布受农业用水空间分布的长期制约；农作物水足迹和国内生产总值没有空间演变因果关系，全疆经济发展向着第二产业、第三产发展转型，农业经济不再显著影响全疆经济发展。

Spatial relationship between crops water footprint and economic growth in Xinjiang in recent 25 years

The spatial relationship between water and economy is the hot spot of water resources research in arid and semi arid areas.It reveals the evolution law and causality of the spatial distribution of water versus economy which can provide theoretical and decision making reference for optimizing the rational allocation of water resources and rationally adjusting industrial structure policies.In this paper,the water footprint theory was used to calculate the crop water footprints in various prefectures in Xinjiang,China from 1991 to 2015,and based on this,the spatial evolution law and the relationship between the crop water footprint and the economy were analyzed in combination with the value added of the first industry,the gross domestic product and the entropy of the crops using the information entropy theory.The results show that the spatial evolution between the water footprint of the crops and the value added of the first industry and GDP demonstrated a balanced and well organized trend with a gradually deflating spatial disequilibrium of water versus economy.The crop water footprint in Xinjiang has a significant influence on the spatial evolution of the value added of the first industry with an influencing period being 1 to 5 years.The spatial distribution of agricultural economy is restricted chronically by the spatial distribution of agricultural water resources.There is no causal relationship between the water footprint of crops and the GDP.The economic development in Xinjiang is turning to the second industry and the tertiary industry for a development transformation,and the agricultural economy no longer significantly affects the economic development in Xinjiang.