| 近50a来塔里木河干流年径流量变化趋势及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈忠升,陈亚宁,徐长春.近50a来塔里木河干流年径流量变化趋势及预测[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):43-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈忠升 陈亚宁 徐长春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院绿洲生态与荒漠环境重点实验室,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011
2. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951003); 中国科学院重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q10-3)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据塔里木河干流1957-2008年的年径流量监测数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数技术检验和R/S法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验法和Mann-Kendall法对其突变点进行检验,最后运用方差分析外推法和叠加趋势预测模型对干流水文周期和未来径流量变化进行分析和预测.结果显示...
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| 关 键 词： | 年径流量 突变点检验 叠加趋势模型 塔里木河干流 |
Change trend and prediction of annual runoff in mainstream area of the Tarim River in recent 50 years |
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| CHEN Zhong-sheng,CHEN Ya-ning,XU Chang-chun.Change trend and prediction of annual runoff in mainstream area of the Tarim River in recent 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2011,34(1):43-51. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Zhong-sheng CHEN Ya-ning XU Chang-chun |
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| Institution: | CHEN Zhong-sheng1,CHEN Ya-ning1,XU Chang-chun2(1 Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China,2 College of Resources and Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the hydrologic data in the mainstream area of the Tarim River from 1957 to 2005,the change trend and catastrophe point of annual runoff were examined in this study area.The change trend of annual runoff in the mainstream area of the Tarim River was inspected by using both Mann-Kendall and R / S nonparametric tests,and the catastrophe point of annual runoff was tested by using Mann-Kendall and moving t-test technique.Finally,hydrologic cycle and future runoff change in the mainstream area of the Tar... |
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| Keywords: | annual runoff catastrophe point test superposition trend model mainstream area of the Tarim River |
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